The group stage draw for soccer’s 2022 World Cup has now been completed and – barring a few teams who still need to contest play-offs in June – we know exactly who will be meeting and when.
To assess its impact, we have calculated the relative difficulty of each team’s schedule in the Qatar 2022 groups using their three opponents’ current FIFA world ranking points.
For groups whose final team has yet to be decided via the play-offs, we have used a probability-weighted average of the nations involved in the World Cup draw.
Who got the best – and worst – draw?
The 32 teams were divided into four pots of eight using their latest FIFA ranking, with the exception of hosts Qatar who were included in Pot 1 despite being ranked 51st in the world. One team from each pot was then drawn into each of the eight Qatar 2022 groups.
Portugal fared best out of the eight top-ranked teams, drawing below-average opposition from each of the other three pots. Meanwhile, England have a tricky group ahead, which could see the world’s 21st best team as their weakest opponent.
How tough was Canada’s World Cup draw?
Canada will be delighted to have qualified for their first World Cup since 1986 but they have a tough task ahead. The draw has pitted them against teams currently ranked 2nd, 16th and 24th in the world.
It is difficult to predict how they might fare against their Group F opponents as their only encounter against any of them since the turn of the century was a 4-0 friendly defeat to Morocco in 2016.
Assuming that Canada qualifies for the knockout phase as Group F runners-up, their most likely opposition in the Round of 16 will be European giants Spain; the strongest team in Group E.
We’ve taken a separate look at the Canada World Cup odds, draw and schedule.
How tough was the United States’ draw?
The United States have also been handed a tough draw, with their two confirmed opponents currently ranked 5th and 21st in the world. Their third opponent – the winner of the UEFA play-off – will be confirmed in June and will be ranked between 18th and 39th.
The biggest team in the USA’s group is England, who they have met four times since the turn of the century; losing three and drawing one. The other guaranteed member of Group B is Iran, who drew 1-1 with the Americans when they last met in 2000.
If the United States qualify for the knockout stages, it is likely to be as group runners-up, which could put them on a collision course with the Netherlands in the Round of 16.
How tough was Mexico’s World Cup draw?
Mexico had the most pleasing draw of the top three CONCACAF nations at the tournament, with two of their opponents currently sitting lower than them in the FIFA rankings.
Their toughest opponents will be Argentina, who they have only beaten once in their 12 competitive meetings to date; a 1-0 win in the 2004 Copa America. However, seven of their eight most recent encounters have seen El Tri find the net, so there is room for optimism.
Mexico are expected to finish Group C as runners-up and reach the knockout stage. If things turn out as planned, then their route to the final will be challenging, with defending champions France their most probable opponent in the Round of 16.
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