Kick-off: 1645, 27/05/2023
Stadium: Wembley
TV: Sky Sports
A place in the Premier League is the ultimate prize up for grabs when Coventry do battle with Luton at Wembley on Saturday.
Each team is aiming to cap off a remarkable upturn in fortunes by returning to England’s elite level – securing a £100million-plus windfall in the process.
Both regular-season meetings ended in stalemate and another close encounter is on the cards, but only two of the last 20 Championship play-off finals have gone to extra-time.
That stat pushes us towards 6/5 for either side to win by one goal in normal time for our first Coventry vs Luton prediction.
Robins keen to reward board’s faith
Coventry were bottom of the table early on after going seven games without a win and still languished in the relegation zone as November began.
However, with just one defeat in their final 17 league games, the Sky Blues shot up the table to finish fifth.
Middlesbrough were favourites to secure the third promotion spot but City followed up a goalless draw on home turf by prevailing 1-0 at Riverside Stadium.
“We are one game away from achieving a dream and changing the club’s future very quickly,” said manager Mark Robins.
“This season has been exceptional in terms of the start we were handed and all the well documented issues that we had.
“The fact I remained in my post when others didn’t. Bottom of the league in October, it’s generally unacceptable.
“That’s been something you look back on and say, ‘OK, that could have happened but it didn’t’.
“We managed to navigate our way through a really difficult period and come out the other side.”
Robins has already led Coventry to a League Two Wembley play-off final victory over Exeter and then took them to top spot in League One three years ago.
The big worry is that they have since failed to beat Luton in six Championship encounters, trailing 11-3 on aggregate.
Looking at the Coventry vs Luton odds, we’re leaning towards 14/5 for Town to win by any one-goal margin.
Last Coventry line-up: Wilson, Doyle, McFadzean, McNally, Kelly, Norton-Cuffy, Sheaf, Bidwell, Hamer, Allen, Gyokeres.
Edwards urges Town to stay focused
Luton had slipped down as far as being a non-league outfit languishing in the fifth tier of English football less than a decade ago.
The Hatters are now hoping to feature in the Premier League for the first time and a win over Coventry would round off their fourth promotion in 10 seasons.
Town finished the regular season in third place, 10 points ahead of City, and were unbeaten in their last 14 fixtures, which featured eight wins.
The pressure was on after Luton lost 2-1 at Sunderland in the first leg of their semi-final, but a 2-0 victory at Kenilworth Road turned the tie around.
Head coach Rob Edwards said: “I try and keep a clear head but I know the magnitude of the game and we all do, there’s no point in not talking about it, there’s nothing wrong with dreaming.
“We are there now, in touching distance. It’s one game, we know we are capable.
“But the one thing we need to do is make sure we are the best version of us and prepare as normally as possible.
“We have to work as hard as we usually do, organise the same and if we get those bits right, you stand a chance – the basics.
“If we get carried away, then you have got no chance in a game like this, so my job is to make sure we concentrate on the stuff we can control and we have to work as hard as we always do.”
Both regular-season meetings were entertaining early on, with five of the six goals scored coming in the first half.
However, given just how much is at stake here, it would be no surprise to see a cagey opening period.
Let’s add 17/4 for Draw HT/Luton FT to our Coventry vs Luton betting tips.
City forward Viktor Gyokeres and Town striker Carlton Morris were second and third in the Championship scoring charts with 21 and 20 goals respectively.
We’ll stick with favouring Luton and take 9/2 for the latter to break the deadlock.
Last Luton line-up: Horvath, Lockyer, Bell, Osho, Drameh, Nakamba, Ruddock, Clark, Doughty, Morris, Adebayo.
Additional stats
Last result:
Middlesbrough 0-1 COVENTRY – Gustavo Hamer
LUTON 2-0 Sunderland – Gabriel Osho, Tom Lockyer
Head-to-head: Coventry 1-1 Luton, Luton 2-2 Coventry, Coventry 0-1 Luton, Luton 5-0 Coventry, Luton 2-0 Coventry, Coventry 0-0 Luton
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