With the latest instalment of I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out Of Here sending 10 new contestants into the jungle, we’ve run the rule over the data from every previous series to predict the main storylines this time around.
Who will endure the most Bushtucker trials?
It was no surprise to see Caitlyn Jenner selected for the first trial of the series as women aged 60 or over are among the most common choices, with over 46% of them having been the first in the unwanted limelight.
Going first is a good omen, with half of previous winners having featured in the first trial. However, she’s unlikely to be suffering the most over the series, with 11 of the last 17 celebs who were voted into at least a third of trials having been men.
It’s also unlikely that Caitlyn will be the best performer when the pressure is on, with fewer than a third of trials contested by older women seeing maximum stars won.
Female celebrities under 30 are the only ones who can match the performance of their male counterparts in this regard, so it could be actress Jacqueline Jossa who ends up in the role of camp heroine.
Winning trials is a sure-fire way to succeed too, with only two previous winners having failed to claim maximum stars at least once.
Who is most likely to leave I’m A Celeb early?
In the history of the show there have been a grand total of 17 early departures, with just over half being walk-outs and the rest explained as either health or personal reasons.
While the gender balance has been fairly even overall, six of the last eight premature leavers have been men. Furthermore, in 13 of the 18 previous series the first person to leave the camp for any reason has been male, including each of the last four.
What does it take to win I’m A Celeb?
There’s some bad news for Caitlyn when we look at the age profile of previous winners, as despite Harry Redknapp’s triumph last year they are usually much younger.
Of the 30 contestants aged over 60 when entering the jungle, Harry has been the only champion, compared to eight of the 48 camp-mates aged under 30 who were crowned at the end of their stay.
Caitlyn’s reality TV experience stands her in far better stead, however, with three of the previous 11 reality stars to compete on the show being crowned Queen of the Jungle.
The world of music has produced the most winners overall with five, while sportspeople and actors have also triumphed on three separate occasions.
Who will win I’m a Celeb this year?
Three of this year’s contestants stand out in our analysis, with Jacqueline perhaps the pick of the bunch.
While actors tend not to perform well in trials, women under 30 fare much better and are also likely to be selected early, giving her a chance to win the audience over.
The data also favours Myles Stephenson, who is also under 30 and shares the combination of being selected for lots of early trials and performing relatively well in them.
Like Jacqueline, his musical profession has produced plenty of past winners but not always competent trialists, and he loses out on top spot thanks to his gender given that men are likelier to leave early.
Rounding out our top three is Caitlyn, with both reality TV and sporting experience countering her age disadvantage. Being selected early also gives her the chance to make a play for the limelight.
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