As the Golden Boot race is starting to take shape, we have decided to take a look back at the last 10 seasons to see what the key ingredients are for picking up this prize.
Previous winners Mo Salah, Harry Kane and Sergio Aguero are all prominent again in the Premier League top scorer odds, but will a new hero emerge this term?
We also explore the Golden Boot trends for the Championship, League One and League Two divisions.
Premier League Golden Boot tips
In the Premier League, a strong start is key. One of the eventual winners has been leading the race at the halfway point in every season, apart from the two years that Harry Kane has collected the award. Kane was joint top scorer with Mo Salah after 19 matches last season, but the Egyptian went on to win. So, if Kane is superstitious, he will want to be just behind the leaders in January. Salah and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang are both well placed this season, as they have already ticked two items off the Golden Boot checklist – every winner in the last 10 seasons has scored at least one hat-trick and reached double figures by the time they played against a club for the second time.
Championship top scorer prediction
A strong start is similarly important in the Championship, where seven out of the last 10 seasons have seen one of the halfway leaders stay ahead of the pack until the end of the season and each of the winners has hit 10 goals by the turnaround. In 2012/13, Glenn Murray almost had the award wrapped up by that point, with an impressive 20 goals in Crystal Palace’s first 23 matches. Amongst this year’s contenders, Lewis Grabban is only one short of the average number of braces a Golden Boot winner manages already, whereas Tammy Abraham and Kemar Roofe are treading on thin ice, having missed more matches than the average winner does all season.
In League One, it is easier to recover from a poor start, with only 50% of the last 10 seasons having a winner who was leading after 23 matches. In 2015/16, Will Grigg had a mere five goals to his name at the midpoint, before scoring four times as many goals in the second half of the season. Lyle Taylor may have nine goals to his name already this season, but he is yet to record a multiple goal haul – the average winner manages six of these in a League One campaign. Tom Eaves looks like the textbook League One Golden Boot winner at this stage, with the proportion of matches where he scores one goal, two or more goals or no goals well aligned with the blueprint for success.
League Two has seen just over half of the last 10 seasons end with the same name at the top of the charts in January and May, and on each occasion where winners have come from the trailing pack, at least one of them had hit double figures by the halfway stage. James Norwood is ahead of the pace you would expect from a League Two Golden Boot winner for both matches where he scores one goal and those where he scores more than one, whereas Nicky Maynard and Tyler Walker need to pick up a few more singles if they are going to challenge.
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