Kick-off: 1945, 15/06/2023
Stadium: De Grolsch Veste
TV: Viaplay Sports
Italy were edged out 2-1 by Spain in the Nations League semi-finals a couple of years ago but may turn the tables in the Netherlands this time around.
The Azzurri, who beat La Roja on penalties at the same stage of the delayed Euro 2020, have a more experienced squad than their opponents here.
Roberto Mancini provides continuity in the dug-out, so 9/4 for the underdogs to come out on top is a value Spain vs Italy prediction.
De la Fuente still settling in
Spain qualified for the semi-finals in dramatic fashion, with Alvaro Morata’s 88th-minute strike securing a 1-0 away win over Portugal which saw them pip the 2019 champions by one point.
La Roja kicked off with draws against Portugal and Czech Republic before wins over Switzerland and the Czechs put them in a good position.
A 2-1 loss to the Swiss in Zaragoza threatened to scupper their chances, but Luis Enrique’s side got back on track with that Braga triumph.
Enrique’s reign ended with a disappointing effort at the World Cup, when Spain went out in the round of 16 via a penalty shoot-out loss to Morocco.
New boss Luis de la Fuente enjoyed a 3-0 home win over Norway in his first Euro 2024 qualifier, but the honeymoon period soon ended with a 2-0 defeat in Scotland.
De la Fuente led the under-21s to European Championship glory in 2019 and helped La Roja to reach the Tokyo Olympics final, when going down 2-1 to Brazil.
He will be keen to make an impression but losing Sergio Ramos, Gerard Pique and Sergio Busquets to retirement has left him with a team in transition.
Pedri, Ferran Torres and Gerard Moreno are other notable absentees and the midfield looks especially moderate, especially if Rodri struggles to recover from the Champions League final.
Looking at the Spain vs Italy odds, we like 18/5 for the Azzurri to win by any one-goal margin.
Mancini can call on strong spine
Italy also emerged successful from a must-win match in the final round of group-stage fixtures, with Giacomo Raspadori and Federico Dimarco scoring in a 2-0 victory in Hungary.
The Azzurri had one major blip during that campaign, when crushed 5-2 by Germany in Monchengladbach.
They had earlier drawn 1-1 at home to Die Mannschaft before edging out Hungary 2-1 in Cesena and sharing the spoils in a goalless stalemate with England at Molineux.
Mancini’s men responded well to the drubbing in Germany, though, shading England 1-0 in Milan and then prevailing in the Budapest decider.
The Azzurri missed out on Qatar 2022 and began their Euro 2024 qualifying campaign with a 2-1 home loss to England, but beating Malta 2-0 away steadied the ship.
Mancini can call on a strong spine to his team, all the way through from Gianluigi Donnarumma between the sticks to Ciro Immobile up front.
Let’s add 11/1 for the Azzurri to prevail 2-1 to our Spain vs Italy betting tips.
Additional stats
Last result:
Scotland 2-0 SPAIN
Malta 0-2 ITALY – Retegui, Pessina
Head-to-head: Italy 1-2 Spain, Italy 1-1 Spain (4-2 on pens), Spain 3-0 Italy, Italy 1-1 Spain, Italy 2-0 Spain
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