Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium
TV: Amazon Prime
This mouthwatering clash would have made an ideal final instead of the last four as it pits tournament favourite Daniil Medvedev against Dominic Thiem, the highest-ranked player left in the draw.
Although Thiem leads 2-1 in the head to head, Medvedev wiped the floor with the Austrian in the quarter-finals of last year’s Rogers Cup in Montreal and he has yet to drop a set at the US Open.
Thiem has also been superb this week and a close encounter seems on the cards, so the Russian to win 3-2 at 9/2 is our first Medvedev vs Thiem prediction.
A Look At Daniil Mevedev’s Betting Odds
Medvedev nearly produced one of the greatest comebacks of all time in last year’s final, during which Rafael Nadal led by two sets to love and a break but needed a decider to win his 19th grand slam title.
Twelve months later, the third seed is now in a great position to go one better and win his first grand slam, with Nadal and Roger Federer skipping the event, while Novak Djokovic was ejected for inadvertently hitting a line judge in the throat with a ball.
Medvedev’s metronomic returns from the baseline have been working as sweetly as ever, just like his serve, which has only been broken three times in 68 games.
However, he was slightly fortunate to take the opening set in his quarter-final with Andrey Rublev, who led 5-1 and 6-3 in the tie-break, only to squander all three set points.
During his 7-6 6-3 7-6 victory, there was just one break point throughout the whole match, which was won by Medvedev, who said afterwards: “Maybe the first time in almost a year I celebrated my win because it was very tough at the end.
“I felt like I could get in trouble, so I was really happy to get the win in the tie-break. One point decided two sets.”
Thiem, like Medvedev, has won the first set in each of his five matches in New York and may well do so again in what is expected to be a rollercoaster semi-final.
Examining the Medvedev vs Thiem odds, we’re attracted by the 9/4 on offer for either player to win from between 0-1 sets down.
A Look At Dominic Thiem’s Betting Odds
Second seed Thiem may not get a better chance of winning a grand slam this year but he would have preferred either Alexander Zverev or Pablo Carreno Busta in the semi-final, players he leads 7-2 and 7-0 in their respective head to head battles.
Thiem has lost three grand slam finals – two at the French Open – but it looked like his drought was about to end in Melbourne at the start of the year when he took a two sets to one lead against Djokovic, only for the Serb to fight back in a four-hour classic and land his eighth Australian Open title.
The world number three took about half that time to dispatch Alex De Minaur in the quarter-finals when his power and big serve proved too much for the young Australian.
Thiem said: “There is no Roger, Rafa or Novak, but there is Daniil, Sascha and Pablo. They are three amazing players. Every single one of us deserves his first major title.”
Only two players deserve it in our view and they are meeting in this semi-final.
He may not get the chance to finally get his hands on the trophy he craves, but for the last of our Medvedev vs Thiem betting tips, we like 15/4 for the Austrian to take the first set either 6-3 or 6-4, as he did against Medvedev in Barcelona last year.
Additional stats
Last result:
MEDVEDEV beat Rublev 7-6 6-3 7-6
THIEM beat De Minaur 6-1 6-2 6-4
Head-to-head: Medvedev 1-2 Thiem
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