With Max Verstappen a prohibitive price to claim a fifth straight win, we’re looking at other betting markets for our Italian Grand Prix predictions.
Mercedes put in an encouraging effort in the Netherlands last weekend and will be hoping to build on that when the action switches to Monza.
The seven-time world champion went into the summer break in good spirits following five consecutive podium placings.
However, he now needs a lift after crashing out in Belgium and then being let down by team tactics when fourth at Zandvoort.
Hamilton was second when Valtteri Bottas broke down in his Alfa Romeo with 15 laps remaining, but was left out on old mediums while those around him stopped for the speediest soft tyres.
Despite taking the lead, Mercedes’ questionable decision rendered the 37-year-old a sitting duck and Verstappen, team-mate George Russell and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc all breezed past.
After Hamilton let rip with a string of expletives to express his frustration, race engineer Peter Bonnington replied: “Sorry about that, Lewis, it was looking good, but we will sit down and review the decisions we made.”
Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff later defended the strategy, stating: “We discussed in the moment, are we taking risks for the race win? Yes, we’re taking risks.
“And he had a tyre that was five laps old, the medium – holding position was the right thing to do.
“At the end, it didn’t work out for him but I’d rather take the risk to win the race for Lewis rather than finish second and third.”
Either way, there was a lot to like about the way the upgraded Mercedes cars performed on race day, with Wolff adding: “There’s so much more positives to take.”
Russell was obviously much more pleased with taking second place in Holland, his best result of the season and a sixth podium.
“The team result wasn’t quite what we hoped for, but we, as Mercedes, are getting closer to that top step, so we will keep pushing,” he said.
The 24-year-old can be backed at 2.5 to make the first three again in Italy and his consistency makes that worth considering.
The Spaniard is on a great run for Alpine at present, with sixth spot at Zandvoort meaning he has picked up points in 10 straight races.
Alfa Romeo’s Bottas failed to finish for the third straight race but is still rated far superior to Mick Schumacher of Haas.
The two-time drivers’ championship runner-up has scored 34 more points than the German and made the top 10 on seven occasions.
Schumacher has only achieved that feat twice and his recent results have been 15-14-17-13.
Bottas surely only has to avoid any incidents to fare better than Schumacher at Monza and 1.73 for him to win that head-to-head battle is added to our Italian Grand Prix predictions.
Past Italian Grand Prix winners
2021 Ricciardo (McLaren), Norris (McLaren), Bottas (Mercedes)
2020 Gasly (Alphatauri), Sainz (McLaren), Stroll (Racing Point)
2019 Leclerc (Ferrari), Bottas (Mercedes), Hamilton (Mercedes)
2018 Hamilton (Mercedes), Raikkonen (Ferrari), Bottas (Mercedes)
2017 Hamilton (Mercedes), Bottas (Mercedes), Vettel (Ferrari)
2016 Rosberg (Mercedes), Hamilton (Mercedes), Vettel (Ferrari)
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