After previously assessing the draw, we’re taking another look at all eight World Cup 2022 groups and inspecting the 32 nations involved.
This includes how they made it to Qatar, their recent records against the other finalists and their likely routes through the tournament.
How they qualified
Aside from hosts Qatar, every nation reaching the finals did so via a qualification process. With just 10 teams in the South American CONMEBOL confederation, this was a simple league structure which Brazil and Argentina dominated, but others were more complex.
UEFA will once again provide the most teams, with 10 of their 13 representatives qualifying as winners of seeded groups. Five did so while remaining undefeated, with England the only side to do so over a 10-game stretch. Three runners-up will fill out the European contingent in Qatar having navigated a subsequent play-off system.
The Northern CONCACAF route requires three rounds, with Canada emerging as surprise winners ahead of traditional powerhouses Mexico and the United States. Fourth-placed Costa Rica will join them after winning an inter-confederation play-off against New Zealand.
Asian and African teams also had to negotiate three rounds, with the former a group stage and the latter a series of two-legged play-offs that created plenty of drama. Most notable was Liverpool forwards Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane lining up on opposite teams for a place at the finals, with Senegal’s Mane converting the winning kick in a penalty shoot-out that eliminated his club team-mate’s Egypt side.
Head-to-head records
For some idea of how each of the 32 nations will fare, we’ve calculated their combined records against the other 31 sides over the past decade. Early favourites Brazil unsurprisingly lead the way with an average of 2.23 points per game, followed by Belgium with 1.98 and then Argentina with 1.84.
The United States team comes out of this analysis fairly well with an average of 1.59 points over 64 matches; better than Mexico and Japan, while only slightly worse than 2016 European champions Portugal.
Canada’s record over the last 10 years is somewhat less impressive; the fifth worst, in fact, with 0.84 points per game and just five wins out of a possible 25. However, all five of those wins have been registered since 2019 and the stars of the current squad were nowhere near it a decade ago, so the team’s rapid progress may be masking their true level.
The route to the final
Finally, we have plotted out each team’s most likely route to the final using a predictive model based on the last decade of international matches and how they may affect the World Cup 2022 groups.
If Canada can make it out of Group F, then they are likely to meet either Spain or Germany – the main contenders to top Group E – in the Round of 16. At the quarter-final stage, their most probable opponent would be favourites Brazil, with Argentina lying in wait should they reach the semi-finals.
The United States’ most probable opponent in the Round of 16 as it stands is the Netherlands, as the favourites to top Group A. In the last eight, they would probably meet Argentina, as the structure of the draw keeps them away from the Brazilians until the semi-final stage at the earliest.
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