Kick-off: 2000, 15/03/2022
Stadium: Johan Cruyff Arena
TV: BT Sport
Ajax twice wasted a lead in the first leg of their Champions League clash with Benfica in the round of 16 but are expected to be more ruthless in the return match.
The teams drew 2-2 in Portugal a fortnight ago but Ajax will feel they wasted the chance to return to Amsterdam with the lead.
They are firm favourites heading into the second leg and a home win with over 2.5 goals at 1.82 is our opening Ajax vs Benfica prediction.
Ajax Betting Odds
Ajax started well in Lisbon and went ahead in the 18th minute when Noussair Mazraoui’s cross found Dusan Tadic, who delivered a sweet finish into the far corner.
Sebastian Haller then took centre stage, first putting through his own net eight minutes later as he diverted Jan Vertonghen’s low cross in.
The former West Ham striker put it right just three minutes later, though, converting from close range after his initial shot was blocked.
Roman Yaremchuk rescued a draw for the Portuguese side when he pounced to head home after Remko Pasveer could only palm Matias Goncalo Ramos’s fierce shot from distance.
Ajax coach Erik ten Hag said: “I have something of a double feeling about the game. It’s a good result but, on the other hand, we let it slip. We had two or three good chances that we didn’t convert.”
Scoring home goals has not been an issue for Ajax this season, having netted 49 goals in 13 Eredivisie fixtures and conceding just five.
They also put four goals past both Borussia Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon in front of their own fans in the group stage.
Ajax are particularly strong in the middle third of the first half. Backing them to score the most goals during this time would have paid out in two of their three home group games and they have netted nine Eredivisie goals at home in that time without conceding.
Looking at the Ajax vs Benfica odds, we like 3.40 for the hosts to score the most goals between 15.01-30.00 minutes.
Benfica Betting Odds
Benfica showed plenty of character to twice come from behind and give themselves hope of still reaching the quarter-finals.
Coach Nelson Verissimo said: “I was satisfied with the performance, not the result. It was a 50-50 game, with two teams trying to win.”
We suspect Benfica’s best chance of progress has gone though, with their away record not offering too much encouragement.
They failed to win any of their three away games in Group E, although they managed goalless draws at Dynamo Kiev and Barcelona either side of a 5-2 thrashing at Bayern Munich.
We’re not convinced they are strong enough defensively to keep Ajax’s forwards quiet here so we’ll take 10.50 for a 3-1 home win as the last of our Ajax vs Benfica betting tips.
Additional stats
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Head-to-head: Benfica 2-2 Ajax, Benfica 1-1 Ajax, Ajax 1-0 Benfica, Benfica 0-0 Ajax, Ajax 1-0 Benfica, Ajax 3-0 Benfica
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