Rafael Nadal is chasing a record 21st grand slam title in the Australian Open final but Daniil Medvedev will be a tough nut to crack in Melbourne.
The Russian was blown away by Novak Djokovic in last year’s decider but went on to gain revenge and break his major duck at the US Open.
Nadal just shaded a five-set marathon when he faced Medvedev in the 2019 US Open championship match but the balance of power has very much shifted since.
On current form, we like 4.0 for the 25-year-old to prevail 3-1 in our Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev predictions.
Rafael Nadal Odds
After battling through to a sixth Melbourne final and 29th overall at a slam, Nadal will bid to go one better than his great rivals Roger Federer and Djokovic in major victories.
The 35-year-old was plagued by a long-standing foot problem during the second half of last season and even feared retirement would be forced upon him.
However, the trademark fighting spirit which has served the Spaniard so well throughout his career has inspired a successful comeback Down Under.
Karen Khachanov gave Nadal problems in round three and Denis Shapovalov took him to five sets in the quarter-finals.
However, there was a lot to like about the way he defeated Matteo Berrettini 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-3 on Rod Laver Arena in the semis.
Nadal will now try to match Djokovic by becoming the second man in the Open era to win each slam at least twice, having claimed his only title in Melbourne back in 2009.
“For me, it’s all about the Australian Open more than anything else,” said Nadal. “It’s an amazing event.
“I’ve been unlucky with a few injuries. I was close a couple of times. I feel very lucky I won it once in my career in 2009 but I never thought about another chance in 2022.”
Unfortunately, the king of clay comes up against a relentless opponent far more suited by this surface.
Looking at the Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev odds, we reckon 1.87 for the Spaniard not to win more than one set is a solid selection.
Daniil Medvedev Odds
Once Djokovic was sent packing, Medvedev was the pre-tournament pick in our Australian Open 2022 predictions but it has not been all plain sailing over the past fortnight.
The Russian dropped a set against Nick Kyrgios and Maxime Cressy before having to come from two down to see off Felix Auger-Aliassime in an epic quarter-final.
A 7-6 4-6 6-4 6-1 success versus Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semis looks more straightforward but it did feature a mid-match meltdown and an extraordinary rant at the umpire.
Medvedev accused Tsitsipas of receiving coaching from his father and began to scream at the official after being given a warning for a visible obscenity following a crucial double-fault.
The list of matches in which Medvedev has lost his cool is a long one but this time he did regain his composure quickly enough to progress.
He said: “In tennis, we don’t fight with the fists but tennis is a fight. It’s a one-on-one against another player.
“So, I’m actually really respectful to players who almost never show their emotions because it’s tough. I can get really emotional. I have been working on it.”
We’re hoping that incident will serve as a wake-up call to Medvedev, who insisted he is looking forward to facing Nadal next.
“Rafa likes to drag people into long rallies – I like it too,” he added. “I think it is going to be a great battle.”
For those wanting an early pay-out, let’s go with the favourite to win the first set 6-4 at 3.5 in our Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev betting tips.
Additional stats
Last result:
NADAL beat Berrettini 6-3 6-2 3-6 6-3
MEDVEDEV beat Tsitsipas 7-6 4-6 6-4 6-1
Head-to-head: Nadal 3-1 Medvedev
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