• Skip to main content
bwin news
  • Football
    • Premier League
    • Accumulators
    • Champions League
    • Europa League
    • Transfer betting odds and news
    • Championship
    • FA Cup
    • EFL Cup
    • Bundesliga
    • La Liga
    • Serie A
    • International football
    • Interviews
  • Horse Racing
  • Tennis
  • Other Sports
    • NBA
    • Boxing
    • Cricket
    • Golf
    • Rugby
    • F1
    • Darts
    • NFL
    • Esports
    • UFC
    • Snooker
    • Cycling
    • MotoGP
  • Insights
    • Infographics
    • Novelty Bets
    • Politics
  • Sports Betting
    • Football betting
    • Tennis betting
    • Live betting
    • Promotions
£20 Backup Bet!Log in
Sport prediction » Football » What will happen in the Champions League knockout stages?

What will happen in the Champions League knockout stages?

Stuart Walker | 24.02.2020
1 Your selection
2 Start Playing
Register, deposit £10 or more and place a Sport bet (3+ selections) up to £20, each with odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater.
3 Get your FreeBet
If it’s not a winning bet, you’ll get up to £20 back as a FreeBet. T&Cs apply
Bet now! Log in
X

With the Champions League having resumed this month, we’ve taken a look at the data from recent seasons to predict what will happen in this year’s knockout stages.

Can you buy the Champions League?

Manchester City and PSG have spent heavily in recent seasons in the hopes of securing a Champions League crown, but their lack of success suggests that money alone isn’t enough.

While more than seven in every 10 Champions League knockout matches over the last decade have been won by the club whose squad had the higher market value, according to TransferMarkt, this effect disappears at the semi-final stage.

However, all of the last 10 finals have been won by the more valuable squad and the last 10 winners were also all one of the four most valuable squads who qualified from the group stage.

On average, one team per year has made it to the semi-final stage despite not being one of the eight most valuable sides among the last 16.

How hard is it to turn around a Champions League tie?

With Liverpool and Tottenham having each lost the first legs of their Round of 16 ties 1-0, their fans will be looking for reasons to remain optimistic.

Unfortunately almost three quarters of ties at this stage under the current Champions League format have been won by the team who triumphed in the first leg.

On average, a single-goal win has been recovered from 29.1% of the time and while three quarters of two-legged ties that open with a 1-0 win see the winner progress after the second leg, there are plenty of less decisive scorelines.

For example, slightly over half of the clubs who lost the first leg 2-1 as the away side went on to qualify for the next round, while four of the five teams who won 3-2 at home in the first leg were knocked out in the second.

Does experience matter in the Champions League knockout stages?

While roughly two in every three Champions League ties under the current format have been won by the squad with more combined knockout appearances in previous seasons, the semi-finals are again the exception.

Only 15 of the 32 semi-finals since the Round of 16 was introduced in 2003-04 have been won by the more experienced side, although for every other round the share is comfortably above 60%. 

It would therefore be a surprise to see Lyon get the better of Juventus over two legs or for Napoli to stun Barcelona, as both have less than 50 knockout matches’ worth of experience to call upon while their opponents have more than 400.

Manchester City and Chelsea face a similar challenge against sides with over 200 additional knockout games under their collective belt.

Join bwin today and receive up to £10 money back as a FreeBet if your first wager at odds of 1/1 (2.0) or greater is a loser! Terms and conditions apply.

Champions League betting Football betting

  •  
  •  
Braga vs Rangers: Hosts backed to overturn Ibrox deficit
Jazz vs Celtics: Boston rated vale bet to upset Utah
Author

Stuart Walker

Stuart has worked at the PA news agency for more than 20 years, beginning on Teletext Sport before moving on to oversee the company’s Football League coverage and now in the role of Sport Production Editor. A lifelong Norwich City supporter and father of two, junior football and an allotment takes up most of his spare time. Meet our other bwin editors

Related posts

Tony Kelshaw 24.01.2021
West Brom vs Man City: Baggies backed to test Blues again
Tony Kelshaw 24.01.2021
Southampton vs Arsenal: Saints to upset Gunners again
Tony Kelshaw 24.01.2021
Newcastle vs Leeds: Magpies value to end miserable run

Security & Trust

Sports
  • Sports betting
  • Live betting
  • Football betting
  • Premier League betting
  • Champions League betting
  • Tennis betting
Corporate Links
  • About us
  • Affiliate program
  • Entain
  • Investor Relations
  • Press Events
About Us
  • Privacy & Cookie Policy
  • User Policy
  • General Terms and Conditions
  • Imprint
  • bwin news
  • Our editors
  • Sponsorships
  • Betting guide



18+!© 2021 ElectraWorks Limited Suite 6, Atlantic Suites, Europort Avenue, Gibraltar

ElectraWorks Limited, the provider of this website, is licensed by the Government of Gibraltar and regulated by the Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner under the Gambling Act 2005. ElectraWorks Limited has been granted a fixed-odds licence (RGL No. 051) and casino licence (RGL N0. 50) for the operation of remote gambling.

Furthermore, ElectraWorks Limited is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission under the Gambling (Licensing and Advertising) Act 2014. ElectraWorks Limited has been granted License No. 000-039011-R-319371-001 for the operation of remote gambling in Britain.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it.Ok