Iga Swiatek is expected to comfortably account for Karolina Muchova and claim her third French Open title in four years.
The 22-year-old Pole prevailed at Roland Garros in 2020 and 12 months ago and looks capable of dominating on clay for some time.
Muchova has shown great spirit to battle through to her first grand slam final but Swiatek is rated on another level.
We’re backing the world No 1 to win at least six more games than her opponent at 8/11 for our initial Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Muchova prediction.
That bet would have paid out in her two previous French Open finals, when beating Sofia Kenin 6-4 6-1 and Coco Gauff 6-1 6-3.
Tricky semi to sharpen up Swiatek
Swiatek has yet to drop a set in Paris and lost just nine games during her first four matches.
In a rematch of last year’s decider, she then comfortably accounted for Gauff 6-4 6-2, but semi-final foe Beatriz Haddad Maia put up more of a fight.
The Brazilian had spent more than twice as long on court following some marathon efforts and that looked set to prove decisive as she went down 6-2 in the opening set.
However, Haddad Maia had chances to level things up in the second before eventually succumbing 8-6 in a tense tie-break.
Swiatek, who also won the US Open last year, said: “It wasn’t easy, she’s a fighter. I’m happy that I played so well in the tie-breaker. I’m just glad that I was solid and I managed to finish these last shots.”
That should serve as a timely wake-up call for the defending champion, who has been putting intense pressure on her opponents with consistently deep forehands.
Looking at the Iga Swiatek vs Karolina Muchova odds, we like 3/1 for the favourite to take the first set 6-3.
Muchova eyeing yet another upset
Muchova wasn’t expected to make it through the opening round but managed to upset eighth seed Maria Sakkari 7-6 7-5.
The Czech beat 27th seed Irina Camelia Begu 6-3 6-2 in round three and enjoyed a 7-5 6-2 success over 2021 finalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarter-finals.
Aryna Sabalenka was again the more fancied player in the semis but Muchova fought back from 5-2 down in the deciding set to claim a 7-6 6-7 7-5 victory.
It was a gutsy performance from the world No 43 but also a stunning collapse from Australian Open champion Sabalenka who, having held match point, won just four of the next 24 points.
“I got on the better wave,” said Muchova. “I could see that she was struggling a little bit and doing fast mistakes. I was just trying to keep her there.”
The 26-year-old was playing in her second slam semi, having also reached the last four at the Australian Open in 2021, but injuries severely restricted her last year, with her ranking dropping outside the top 200.
“I always kept it positive in my mind and tried to work and do all the exercises to be able to come back,” added Muchova.
“In the past, it was not easy. That’s actually what makes me appreciate this result even more now, because I know what I have been through.”
If Muchova can produce the same all-court wiles she showed against Sabalenka, there may be some interesting exchanges in the decider.
However, we just don’t believe she has the weapons to trouble Swiatek’s superb all-round game on this surface.
The only market which favours the underdog is on who will serve the most double faults, with Swiatek Evens here, Muchova 6/4 and a tie 7/2.
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