Garbine Muguruza of Spain

Kenin vs Muguruza: Underdog to shade Aussie Open final

Time: 0845, 01/02/2020

Stadium: Rod Laver Arena

Few would have forecast an Australian Open final between Garbine Muguruza and Sofia Kenin at the start of the tournament, but the refreshingly unpredictable nature of women’s tennis means we could have a first-time grand slam champion on Saturday.

Muguruza upset fourth seed Simona Halep in straight sets in the last four, but Kenin went one better by eliminating world number one and home favourite Ashleigh Barty to reach her maiden grand slam final.

The players have met just once before in Beijing four months ago and with that match going the distance our first Kenin vs Muguruza prediction is for a three-set final at 27/20.

A Look At Sofia Kenin’s Betting Odds

Kenin had not gone beyond the fourth round of any grand slam before this year’s Australian Open, but she has looked totally at home in Melbourne, where she has dropped just one set.

The 21-year-old American had not faced a seed up until her clash with Barty, against whom she saved set points in both sets before prevailing 7-6 7-5 in a match played in scorching heat and lasting an hour and 45 minutes.

She said: “I believed I could win even though I had two set points down in the first and second. I was telling myself that I believe in myself.

“If I lose the set, I’m still going to come out and believe. Yeah, I really did a great job with it. I didn’t give up.”

Kenin will need that sort of confidence against Muguruza, who is unseeded despite winning the French Open in 2016 and Wimbledon a year later.

The Russian-born Floridian defeated Muguruza at the China Open in September having taken the opening set 6-0 and we’re predicting another red-hot start in the final.

The 14th seed to take the first set at 6/5 is the next of our Kenin vs Muguruza betting tips.

A Look At Garbine Muguruza’s Betting Odds

The world was at Muguruza’s feet when she crushed Venus Williams in the Wimbledon final three years ago, but it’s been slim pickings since then and her Melbourne campaign nearly ended at the first hurdle.

Spaniard Muguruza was struggling with a virus going into her opening match against Shelby Rogers and she could not have made a worse start, losing the first set 6-0, only to battle back by winning 12 of the next 13 games.

The world number 32 also dropped a set in her second-round match against Ajla Tomljanovic, but healthy again it has been pretty much plain sailing, beating three top-10 players en route to the final, for which she is an 11/20 favourite.

However, there have been plenty of surprises over the course of the last two weeks and it would not be a shock to add Kenin to that list.

Looking at the Kenin vs Muguruza odds, we reckon 9/2 on the underdog to win in three sets, just as she did in China last year, smacks of excellent value.

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