The big boys won’t be out in force at the ATP Miami Masters for a few more days yet, but there’s clearly money to be made from a number of evenly-matched first-round clashes in Florida.
We’ve dug down into the data ahead of this hard-court jamboree and cobbled together a high-value treble which will pay out at over 13/1, all going well.
Filip Krajinovic v Dusan Lajovic
The two Serbs go to war for only the second time on tour, and after Krajinovic retired early to give Lajovic the win in Hamburg last July, it’s practically impossible to read anything from their previous encounter.
The former, rated 96 in the world behind his compatriot at 73, had to make it through two qualifying rounds to reach this stage, but that means he has now won five of his last six matches, all on hard courts, since taking a set off Grigor Dimitrov at the ATP Abierto Mexicano Telcel in February.
Such momentum suggests the 23-year-old is top value, at a top price with bwin.com, to edge past Lajovic, who has won just one of his past five matches.
Jarkko Nieminen v Marinko Matosevic
The Finn is well fancied to take this at 11/17 with the boys in black and gold, who roll out another industry best in the 11/10 about Matosevic.
The 29-year-old has some decent recent form to his name though, having knocked John Isner out in straight sets at Delray Beach in the middle of last month, before going down 6-7, 4-6 to eventual ATP Abierto Mexicano Telcel winner David Ferrer later in February. Both tournaments were held on hard courts.
With that in mind, back there to be no tie breaks in the match, as Nieminen has contested just two in his past 11 sets, while Matosevic has been through only three in his last seven matches.
Vasek Pospisil v Juan Martin Del Potro
Canadian number two Pospisil’s form since mid-February reads two wins and three losses, which doesn’t sound like much and gets even worse when taking into account one of his victories was somewhat by default, as Mikhail Kukushkin retired due to injury in their first-round clash at Indian Wells.
However, the 24-year-old was well on the way to victory in that contest, leading 6-4, 4-2 when his opponent pulled out, and Pospisil’s three recent losses came against Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori, each of whom are, of course, in the world’s top five.
He was far from hopeless against Djokovic in Dubai, going down 4-6, 4-6 to tennis’ current top dog.
With Del Petro hard to fancy after not playing since the Australian Open, where the Argentine giant was returning to the game after ten months out injured, Pospisil has to be seen as value.