You’ll struggle to invest at 28% profit rate over three-six months with any bank or business venture, but that’s what’s on offer (kind of) with bwin’s 5/18 odds about Hillary Clinton winning the 2016 US Presidential Election, a likelihood becoming increasingly certain.
One American political pundit noted that Clinton’s opponent Donald Trump should have taken a fortnight off after the Republican Convention and ignored the Democratic equivalent, which looked frosty at times, but a holiday the man will not take, because that’s how you get things done.
Trump’s odds of snatching the presidency have jumped from 7/4 to 13/5 in recent weeks, after the real estate tycoon disgusted many with his retort to Democratic speaker Khizr Khan, the father of a US Muslim killed fighting for his country in Iraq.
Kicking a baby out of a speech for crying, suggesting Russia should hack US security systems, leading to American ex-spies speculating he could be Vladimir Putin’s puppet, insulting Republican leaders by peevishly refusing to give his endorsement, claiming the election might be stolen from him…
All these things have happened in the past two weeks alone.
There has been a whopping effect on the polls, after Trump was assumed to have taken a lead following on from the exposure of his GOP Convention, with some now giving Clinton a 15-point lead of 48 per cent to her rivals 33 per cent.
Even more importantly, states such as the ‘Rust Belt’ of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, where Trump badly needs to win big, are leaning back towards Clinton and the Democrats, after all three voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
With three months to go until polling day nothing is set in stone, and noted pundits such as Nate Silver and Christopher Hayes see Clinton’s lead falling to as low as four or five percent, but that’s still more than Obama managed against Mitt Romney four years ago.
If she gets any shorter, which constant Trump catastrophes suggest will happen soon, the value doesn’t add up, but at 5/18 there’s another bet still in there.