Not for the first time during this Formula One campaign, Lewis Hamilton takes an awful lot out of the market at 11/20 for the Brazilian Grand Prix, particularly considering his dreadful form at Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace.
The Stevenage native has never won in seven attempts around the Sao Paulo track and has only made the podium once, back in 2009.
Hamilton came ninth this time last year, which was at least better than retirements in his two previous tries, and finished fifth during the first and thus far only season he carried off the drivers’ championship back in 2008.
The Mercedes man may be on a six-timer, having practically seen off teammate Nico Rosberg for the title with five wins in his last five races, but you’d be mad to back him in Brazil.
On the other hand, Hamilton’s former McLaren brethren Jenson Button has a superb record at this circuit and begs for a bet at 11/10 to finish in the top six, while 11/1 on the 34-year-old getting on the podium deserves a second glance as well.
Punting on Button to win may be a tad optimistic, even at 80/1, but that’s what he did here two years ago, and the 2009 world champion hasn’t been out of the top six in any of his last five Brazil runs.
Button lost a bit of momentum last time out in the USA, where he ended the race way down the field in 12th, but the Brit had bagged three top-six finishes in five races prior to that and has eight in 17 runs all told this year.
With neither Hamilton nor Rosberg able to boast of a Brazil win (the German’s best finish was fourth with Williams back in 2007), Mercedes shouldn’t be attracting your money this weekend.
Backing Button to outperform his odds once again looks a much better way to play.