Political betting markets may be momentarily in the doldrums after spectacularly failing to predict either Donald Trump’s elevation to GOP nominee or Brexit, with yours truly as culpable as anyone, but that doesn’t mean the natural order of things has been completely overturned.
Take the US Presidential Election markets, with bwin’s cautious 5/11 top price about Hillary Clinton emerging as the 45th person to hold the highest office on earth looking very enticing value indeed.
Clinton is extremely unpopular with vast swathes of the American electorate, seemingly due to overexposure and a perceived lack of sincerity – the tweets below sum up the former First Lady’s problem rather perfectly:
— Clue Heywood (@ClueHeywood) July 14, 2016
That being said, it’s practically impossible to construct a case that ends with Trump taking the laurels come November.
For the ‘Republican’ to gain the 270 electoral college votes needed to become POTUS, he needs to carry at least two, maybe three massive States such as Texas (38 votes), Florida (29), New York (29) and California (55).
Trump currently holds a soft polling lead in the former, comes in level with Clinton in Florida, and is being badly beaten in the latter pair.
Indeed, after Texas, South Carolina is the State with the most number of electoral votes pollsters currently see Trump winning (9), and the septuagenarian only leads in 12 others.
That won’t cut it, and while his fans claim Clinton’s support will erode as the race unfolds and exposure increases, it’s fair to assume the American people know all about her at this stage, so the poll numbers look to have the 68-year-old’s many negatives already factored in.
States such as California, New York and Florida that went for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 aren’t likely to choose a much more right-wing, inexperienced isolationist when faced with the starkest of choices.
Half the country hating the President is nothing new in US Politics, but when seven out of ten women have an unfavourable view of a candidate, you know something’s up.
Trump couldn’t even get a half-decent running mate. He surely can’t win this war.