The producers of Big Brother have set their audience a challenge to test how well they know the show and their fellow fans: can you identify the winner before the show starts based on the merest morsels of information?
For the first time in the show’s history, they have announced the housemates who will enter the 16th civilian series in advance of Tuesday’s launch, offering nothing more than a name, age, hometown, photograph and two bullet points about each.
The expeditious bwin bookies already have a winner market live, so if you are convinced that you have already locked eyes on the champion, you don’t need to wait until everyone has cottoned on to place your bet.
Rather than rely on hunches, we’re taking a statistical steer, using common traits of past victors to determine – by process of elimination – which hopeful best fits the profile of reality TV royalty:
Jack McDermott (4/1)
Cristian MJC (5/1)
Harriet Jackson (6/1)
Chloe Wilburn (7/1)
Danny Wisker (7/1)
Simon Gross (10/1)
Joel Williams (14/1)
Kieran McLeod (14/1)
Aaron Frew (16/1)
Eileen Daly (16/1)
Jade-Martina Lynch (20/1)
Nick Henderson (20/1)
Sarah Greenwood (20/1)
Amy and Sally Broadbent (20/1)
Adjoa Mensah (25/1)
Big Brother viewers are an ageist lot, never seeing fit in the show’s 15-series existence to vote anyone older than 32 their winner.
That’s no good for 51-year-old Eileen or 46-year-old Simon.
They don’t like their housemates too young either – there have only been two champions aged 21 or under and none in the four years since the show moved to Channel 5 and the audience thinned.
This would wipe out Cristian (20), Joel (19) and Nick (19).
Nobody has ever won the series when entering alongside either a sibling, parent, child or partner.
The consequence being that twins Amy and Sally have no chance.
Fourteen years have passed since an Irish entrant triumphed.
This indicates that polyamorous Dubliner Jade is without a hope.
Both genders enjoy three-year cycles on top: series six to eight were won by men, nine to 11 by women and 12 to 14 by dudes, with divisive Helen Wood putting the girls back in power last year.
Danny, Jack, Kieran and Aaron would therefore have been better off holding out until 2017.
Two of the past three female winners called the north west of England home.
Unfortunately for Chloe (Doncaster) and Harriet (London), their regions don’t have such a formidable strike rate.
Four of the last six prize scoopers had blue eyes.
It has come down to two Mancunian 20-somethings, but sadly for Adjoa, her brown eyes are going to be her downfall. Which means…
Your Big Brother 2015 winner is: Sarah Greenwood
You can’t argue with scientific research this robust, so back Sarah while she is still available at 20/1. Customers opening a new bwin.com account can use their £30 bet bonus to target a £600 reward.