One Hot Minute: Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich

One Hot Minute: Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich

We’ve got our eyes on the German season’s curtain-raiser this weekend for our One Hot Minute match as the Bundesliga’s two most prestigious sides – Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich – resume hostilities in the DFL-Supercup.

To say these two are no strangers is an understatement. They regularly cross paths in cup competitions as well as twice per season in the top flight, so there’s no shortage of head-to-head data we can use to work out when the deadlock might be broken.

Going back over their last 50 competitive meetings gives us just under two decades of data and only five stalemates, which is plenty to work with. What we found immediately was these two don’t need long to start tearing into each other – over a third of the opening goals in this period were netted inside the first 10 minutes, making it one of the most explosive fixtures we’ve analysed.

Furthermore, over half of the opening goals in these games have arrived before the 20th minute and three quarters before half-time. They’ve met in four previous Supercup finals during this period and two of those – 2012 and 2013 – saw the net bulge in the sixth minute. With only four of the first-half opening goals arriving after the half hour mark, we’d recommend an early guess if you fancy the deadlock to be broken before the interval.

Both teams have been quick off the mark in their own recent fixtures too. Dortmund’s average opening goal in their last 20 competitive matches has come after just 17 minutes and Bayern’s after 22. In fact only one of the last 13 openers they’ve netted between them has arrived later than the 25th minute, so there’s every reason to expect a fast start here.

Data correct as at 31 July 2016

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