Here’s a trivia question for you: who are the only team in all of the professional divisions in England and Scotland who are yet to record a home league victory this season?
Okay, so if you’ve read the title of this article, you’ve probably already figured out that the answer is SPL basement boys Dunfermline Athletic.
Remarkable as it sounds, seven months into the season, the poor old Pars fans are still waiting for their heroes to notch their opening league win at East End Park.
But fear not ladies and gents, as I have a sneaky suspicion that the winless curse will finally be broken at the 12th time of asking this evening as Kilmarnock make the trip to Fife.
At first, this ‘hunch’ was based on nothing more than a sympathetic desire to see them finally get the monkey off their backs, as it can’t be doing anyone associated with the club any favours.
However, a study of the form book and a bit of statistical analysis later and I am reasonably confident that there is at least a case to be made for Dunfermline here.
Dunfermline may never have a better chance to notch that elusive home success than they do tonight, because in Killie, they face a team with the worst away record in the SPL.
Jim McIntyre’s men are a lengthy 23/10 in bwin’s 3Way football betting market to take all three points, so I’m not suggesting you put your mortgage on them – let’s make that clear before I continue.
Most of the money will surely be going on Kilmarnock to take the spoils at odds of 11/10, or at the very least on the draw, which is also available at 23/10.
But in truth, Dunfermline may never have a better chance to notch that elusive home success than they do tonight, because in Killie, they face a team with the worst away record in the SPL.
Just one win and a total of eight points have been registered by Kenny Shiels’ side on their travels, while their tally of seven goals in 11 matches is also the lowest in the division (alongside Hearts).
Of course, that disappointing goals for column is great news for Dunfermline, who have been shipping goals at East End Park in alarming fashion – 31 in 11 games, to be precise.
Another factor which could weigh in the hosts’ favour is that while Killie were slugging it out with Hibernian in the Scottish Cup on Saturday – a game they lost 1-0 at Easter Road – Dunfermline’s players were sat with their feet up.
They have not played for ten days and should be fresher than Shiels’ troops, who may also have the exertions of their draining recent extra-time Scottish League Cup semi-final triumph over Ayr United still in their legs.
Of course, Killie’s reward for that result is a showpiece final with Celtic and it is not out of the question to suggest that their players may have one eye on that clash, especially as they are marooned in mid-table in the SPL.
But here’s the best bit. Who did Killie play before their clash with the First Division battlers?
Yes, you guessed it – Dunfermline. The result? A shock 3-0 triumph for the Pars at Rugby Park.
With a respectable 46% of the possession that day and six shots on target to Killie’s two, they will surely have the chance to impose themselves in the re-match.
And as if ending their home hoodoo were not motivation enough, McIntyre’s men have the added incentive of hauling themselves above Hibs and off the foot of the table with victory.
New customers receive a free £25 bet for joining bwin.com and placing this on Dunfermline to win could net you £82.50 if they do pull it off – not bad for a night’s work.
And that’s not to mention being able to brag to your mates that you backed a team who hadn’t won at home all season at the very moment the spell was finally broken, cashing in at odds of 23/10 in the process.
If you really want to run with this one, consider the fact that Kilmarnock have scored just three second-half goals on the road this season, while Dunfermline have fired 11 after the break on home soil (only Rangers, Celtic and Hearts have managed more).
With this in mind, selections in the half-time/full-time market such as Dunfermline/Dunfermline at 9/2 or draw/Dunfermline at 17/2 offer even more lucrative routes into a potential Pars triumph.
Right, I think I’d better stop writing now, as I’ve already said enough to ensure I will look like a Class A clown when Kilmarnock romp to a 5-0 victory…
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