On the face of the matter, Crystal Palace look a delectable 91/100 wager to down former manager Tony Pulis’ West Brom at Selhurst Park.
The Eagles are soaring under Alan Pardew, with five wins in their last six outings including a home win over Manchester City and a 4-1 riot in Sunderland last time out.
West Brom’s form is the exact negative of their hosts – they’ve lost five of their past six outings, falling to the Citizens on home turf to enhance the analogy further.
Furthermore the strength of their defence, for which their manager’s name has become a byword, has utterly dissolved in recent games.
Shipping three goals to David Silva and friends is one thing, but the Baggies’ sieve-like rearguard have also allowed QPR and Leicester to do the same or worse in their last two home games.
Such polarised form in the build up to Pulis’ first return to Selhurst Park makes opposing Palace with either the 12/5 about the draw or the 29/10-rated West Brom win look a fool’s errand.
However, football seldom works like that and nor does football betting.
Wager-making on the sport at this point in the campaign follows suit less often still and there is little reason not to expect the law of the sod to clip the in-form Eagles’ wings here.
After all, it was visiting boss Pulis’ baseball-cap ensconced cranium that first schemed up a way to turn this Palace side from cannon fodder to feted survivors.
That he possesses the nous to plot the downfall of the machine he created should be in little doubt.
The Welshman proved as much last season when his Eagles downed Stoke City, the club where he cut his Premier League teeth, 1-0 at Selhurst.
Dig a little deeper into the Eagles’ form and there’s further reason to see the hosts coming unstuck.
Palace have won only five times at their south east London fortress this term and the fact that three of those last four victories came against Liverpool, Spurs and City suggests that they thrive only when the onus to attack is on their foes.
It’s unlikely this will have been lost on a shrewd and naturally pragmatic tactician like Pulis, who will know dross of the ilk of Sunderland and pre-Tim Sherwood Aston Villa have come away from the Eagles’ lair with three points this season.
At 83/100 West Brom to avoid defeat, a modicum shorter than the home win, looks the best way to harness the Law of the Sod’s fearful power.
