It’s been two weeks since the last Long Shots article thanks to yet another bloody international break, but if you have been pining for Football Betting’s Premier Outsider Odds Column (it’s what they are calling it down the pub) then at least you had some entertaining England games to keep you occupied in the meantime. Ahem.
Although to be honest, the international break came at a good time for the Long Shot after none of the selections came in two weeks ago. We never really expected Sunderland to win after being behind to Manchester City at half-time (the price of 125/1 was just too big to ignore) but our other choices were mixed. Newcastle looked as limp as Pele in the first half against Manchester United, meaning Demba Ba hadn’t even kicked the ball, never mind scored, before Jonny Evans put the Red Devils ahead, although a tip of Tranmere beating Notts County by two or more hit the bar, with Rovers winning 1-0.
But just like the Serbian FA, I am burying my head in the sand and pretending nothing went wrong and I am confident that this week’s selections can give us a win. The Long Shot is, after all, still in profit by £20 in its five-week existence (we put £10 on each tip every week), which is good going considering we are looking at bets that, unlike Imogen Thomas, aren’t a sure thing.
So get your money on these three choices this weekend and we’ll reconvene next week to count our winnings….
Newcastle and Sunderland to draw 1-1 @ 5/1
Nothing brings out the cliche in people quite like a derby. Bragging rights. Passionate affair. And where Sunderland and Newcastle are concerned, ‘they love their football up there’, as if there are loads of places where they don’t love their football.
But if the banal observations concerning a derby match are predictable, they are sometimes only as predictable as what is going on the pitch and as such, the Long Shot is hoping a trend from the Tyne-Wear derby is going to continue on Sunday.
Four of the last eight matches have finished 1-1, so the 5/1 on that happening again looks like a good place to start this week. Both teams are struggling to score – Newcastle have notched eight goals in seven matches, Sunderland have five in six – so with goals at a premium (there have been just four first-half strikes between the sides all season) the 1-1 looks like a solid shout.
Five or more goals in Yeovil v Bury @ 9/2
Yeovil have been the surprise team of League One a couple of times this season: first by leading the table after four games following an unexpectedly strong start, and now by topping the table for total goals.
There have been more goals in games featuring the Glovers than any other side in the third tier and there has to be some mileage in the idea that there will be five or more scored when Bury visit Huish Park on Saturday.
Half of Yeovil’s games have seen at least four goals (three of them have seen five) and there is a good chance of a repeat against the Shakers. Kevin Blackwell has seen nine goals in his two away games in charge since taking over at bottom-of-the-table Bury and at 9/2, take a chance on there being plenty of goals on Saturday.
Bristol Rovers and Torquay United to draw 0-0 @ 19/2
Torquay United seem to have gone a bit Andy Goram this season, with their away games a complete contrast to their home matches, but if there have been goals galore at Plainmoor, then it has been a different story on their travels and the 19/2 that their trip to Bristol Rovers finishes goalless is too big.
Only Burton Albion have seen more goals in matches at their own ground than Torquay, but on the road it has been a different story. There have been just nine goals in the six matches United have played on the road, three of which have had a goal or less, and it could be a case of that happening again when they face a Rovers side who don’t get many themselves.
There are only three sides who have seen less goals on their own patch than the Pirates (just 14 in six games) and with both sides already playing out a goalless draw apiece this season, the 19/2 on a 0-0 is definitely worth a punt.