A bet on Swansea to secure a win or a draw against Chelsea looks good value at 21/20 given the Blues’ price of 3/4 to pick up all three points from the clash at the Liberty Stadium.
Admittedly, the respective league positions of the two clubs point towards an easy away success, with Champions League-chasing Chelsea nine places and 15 points better off than mid-table Swansea.
However, the position of Brendan Rodgers’ men in the overall league table belies the fact they are among the most effective teams at home.
The Swans have only lost once in Wales – a narrow 1-0 defeat to Manchester United – despite having faced Spurs and Arsenal in addition to the defending champions at the Liberty Stadium this season.
Indeed, their last match on home turf was a 3-2 win over the Gunners, taking their record to five wins and five draws from 11 games.
The position of Brendan Rodgers’ men in the overall league table belies the fact they are among the most effective teams at home.
As such, the visit of Chelsea will hold no fear for Swansea, particularly given the Blues’ recent results.
The last league assignment for Andre Villas-Boas’ side was a trip to Carrow Road to face Norwich, who, like Swansea, came up from the Championship last season.
Despite being odds-on favourites to win, Chelsea were held to a draw by the Canaries after failing to find the back of the net.
Until then, Norwich had not kept a clean sheet in the Premier League since their return and given Swansea have conceded the joint-fewest goals at home this season, a bet on Chelsea to score under 1.5 goals tomorrow looks far more tempting at 87/100 than the Blues to score over 1.5 goals at 83/100.
In fact, Chelsea have only scored two or more goals in a league game once in their last seven attempts, providing yet more reason to back Swansea to restrict the Blues to under 1.5 goals.
When Chelsea’s lack of cutting edge up front is considered alongside Swansea’s defensive solidity, the case for an away win looks extremely shaky and the odds on a home success (7/2) and draw (13/5) look significantly more appealing.
But with odds of 21/20 on a Swansea win or draw, it could be worth heading straight to the double chance market, with a successful £25 stake offering returns of £51.25.
For those tempted, bwin is offering new customers a £25 free bet when they sign up for an account.
One final bet to consider is on Swansea to score the final goal of the game, as they have in three of their last four matches at the Liberty Stadium.
Again, Chelsea are favourites in this market – they are priced at 57/100 to have the final say, with Swansea available at a hefty 9/5.
But the Blues have conceded ten goals in the final 15 minutes of league matches this season, which is more than all teams bar Fulham and Wigan in the Premier League.
Given this vulnerability late on, it would hardly be a shock if Swansea scored in the dying minutes of the game – perhaps to salvage a draw or even grab a last-gasp winner.
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