With the Premier League taking a break for the World Cup qualifiers just as it starts to get into full swing, at bwin we are taking the chance to have a look at some of the statistics from the season so far to see if we can uncover some useful betting hints to use over the coming weeks and months. This article looks at the teams who have been involved in games with a lack of goals and we have found interesting figures concerning Stoke City, Sunderland, West Ham United, Aston Villa, Norwich City, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea that punters need to be aware of when betting on the goals markets.
There are many reasons why a football match may not produce many goals. A team could have a rock-solid defence, or one particular side might just struggle to find the net. Some teams go into games looking not to get beaten, while sometimes the better sides are happy to establish a lead and see out the game, reserving energy for sterner tests ahead.
Whatever the reasons, there are some teams that are more prone to low-scoring matches than others and below are some interesting statistics about who we should be backing in the under 2.5 goals market for the foreseeable future. Read on to find out more…
Once again, we see the statistics backing up what our natural instinct would tell us – Stoke City are the Premier League’s bore specialists so far this season, with just 11 goals scored in the seven fixtures played by Tony Pulis’ side.
Six of the Potters’ seven games have seen fewer than three goals scored, with the only exception being a 2-2 draw against Wigan. Three of those matches have been under 1.5 goals (including two 0-0 draws), which means there has been an average of just 1.57 goals per match.
These sort of figures are typical of Stoke’s four-and-a-bit years in the top flight: Pulis’ men have averaged 2.34, 2.47, 2.16 and 2.45 goals per fixture in their four full seasons in the Premier League, so backing under 2.5 goals in Stoke matches is a sure way to make profit over the course of nine months. They face Manchester United next, and bwin go 13/10 on under 2.5 goals.
Sunderland are next in the table, with just 12 goals in their six Premier League matches so far. Four of the Black Cats’ fixtures have seen under 2.5 goals and once again, this is a trend that has been ongoing for some time. Matches involving Martin O’Neill’s team averaged 2.39 goals last term, while Sunderland also had the highest amount of games that produced under 1.5 goals (13). The Wearsiders face arch-rivals Newcastle next and you can get 11/5 with bwin on under 1.5 goals in that game.
West Ham are the only other Premier League team whose fixtures are averaging under 2.5 goals. There have been 16 goals in the Hammers’ seven games, an average of 2.29 a match, and four of their games have been under 2.5 goals.
But remember, while the average goals per game is a good indication of the amount of goals you can expect when a team takes to the pitch, it is not always the definitive statistic. Take Aston Villa: Paul Lambert’s team are averaging 2.57 goals in their fixtures, but five of their seven games have been under 2.5 goals.
Similarly, Norwich City’s games may be averaging 3.14 goals, but four of the Canaries’ seven fixtures have seen two goals or less, with two of them producing under 1.5 goals. Norwich host Arsenal next and you can get 333/100 with bwin on one goal or fewer to be scored.
The above stats take account of all matches, but there are some more figures that are worth highlighting as we look at the differences between teams in front of their own fans and when they go on the road.
The top of the home table is no great surprise, with 100% of Stoke (three matches) and Sunderland (two) home games seeing under 2.5 goals, but elsewhere there are some trends that are worth noting.
Tottenham’s appearance near the bottom of the table may be something of a surprise given their reputation for attacking, expansive football, but three of Spurs’ four games at White Hart Lane have seen under 2.5 goals at an average of 2.29 goals per match.
Newcastle United and Liverpool are the only other two teams whose home fixtures are averaging under 2.5 goals, with two fixtures out of two in both cases with an average of 2.25 goals at both grounds. For Liverpool, this is a continuation from last season, when the Reds saw 12 of their games at Anfield produce under 2.5 goals at an average of 2.11 goals a match. The Merseysiders host Reading next, and it is 23/20 with bwin for two goals or less.
Again, Norwich provide an anomaly. There has been average of exactly three goals a game at Carrow Road, but that number has been skewed by Liverpool’s 5-2 win last month as the other two fixtures have been 1-1 and 0-0, so be careful not to merely look at the average amount of goals.
There are a couple of major surprises when we look at the bottom of the goals per game table for away games. As expected, fixtures involving Stoke (1.67 goals), Sunderland (2.25) and West Ham (2) are averaging under 2.5 goals per game, although two of the Hammers’ three away games have seen three goals or more scored.
But there are two sides in the bottom five who you may not expect to be there. Arsenal have seen just eight goals scored in their four away games, an average of exactly two a match. Three of the Gunners’ four games on the road have been under 2.5 goals, but beware: this is in stark contrast to last season, when only five of Arsenal’s 19 away games saw two goals or less and there were 3.53 goals a game on average.
Perhaps more surprising is the fact that Chelsea are actually bottom of this table, with just five goals scored in their three away games at an average of 1.67 a game. Two of those three have seen under 2.5 goals and this continues a trend from last season, when there were just 46 goals in the Blues’ 19 away games at an average of 2.46 a game. Eleven of those were under 2.5 goals and with Roberto Di Matteo’s side travelling to face a Tottenham side who haven’t seen too many goals at White Hart Lane this year, bwin’s 83/100 on fewer than three goals looks a good bet.
All these statistics and a whole lot more besides are at your fingertips at the news.bwin.com/en/ Stats Centre, so make sure you regularly check this out over the season to make sure you are fully informed when putting your bets on.
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