Southampton and Liverpool head into their Premier League fixture at St Mary’s, which the hosts have had the better of in recent years, with Ronald Koeman’s side four points ahead of Brendan Rodgers’, so it shouldn’t be surprising to see a home victory as the shortest-priced outcome at 6/4.
Rodgers’ Reds have been in fine fettle, going unbeaten for 17 games in all competitions since mid-December, but the games really are coming thick and fast right now.
Liverpool’s last ten matches have alternated between midweek and weekend, a workload that has to take its toll on a team that has experienced wild fluctuations in fortunes under the Northern Irish tactician.
Lucas Leiva and Steven Gerrard are both still out through injury, meaning Rodgers’ midfield triumvirate of Emre Can, Jordan Henderson and (possibly) Joe Allen will be given the chance to further cement their positions.
However, a stern test awaits in the form of bruising Saints duo Morgan Schneiderlin, who is expected to make just his third start since the turn of the year, and Victor Wanyama.
Saints’ 0-0 draw at home to West Ham last time out was their first midweek match for over a month, stretching back six games, during which time Liverpool have played ten, and Koeman seems to have steadied what can be a shaky ship on the south coast with four points gained from the last six available.
The visitors have been far from convincing on the road of late either, claiming come-from-behind 2-1 victories away to Bolton and Crystal Palace in the FA Cup, playing out a bland 0-0 with local rivals Everton at the Toffees Goodison Park HQ and losing 1-0 at Chelsea in the Capital One Cup.
On balance, Southampton are value for the win at 6/4, while under 2.5 goals at 3/4 would mirror six of their past seven Premier League home games.