Jamie Vardy continues to sustain his place at the top of the Premier League goalscoring charts, but after another week without finding the target, his position grows ever more perilous.
The Leicester striker has 19 to his name so far and assumes the shortest price to win the Golden Boot at 2/1, but with the pursuing pack hot on his heels, backing the field over the favourite is the best way to make some money here.
Harry Kane (11/4), Romelu Lukaku (14/5) and Sergio Aguero (3/1) all got on the scoresheet last weekend and with respective hauls of 17, 18 and 16, each individual has reached the campaign’s final throes in better form than the Steel City sharpshooter.
Assuming current scoring rates are maintained between now and the final game of the season, Vardy will finish on 22.
With just four goals in his last 13 league outings, the 29-year-old is notching at a rate of one goal every 0.3 appearances.
Failure to improve this return will see him augment his current total by three goals. It’s a haul that would’ve entitled him to the Golden Boot in just three previous seasons.
Kane’s current scoring rate across the same period is a much-improved 0.62.
Should he maintain this standard, he’ll add six more to his total and will finish one ahead of Vardy on 23.
Over the same timeframe, Lukaku is firing 0.53-per-match and will end the campaign five better off should this continue, sharing a tally of 23 with Kane.
Averaging 0.76 goals-per-match in his last 13 outings, Aguero is in the best form of the bunch.
His brace against Aston Villa last time took him to within three goals of the lead, but should he continue in this vein and, crucially, feature in every game, he’ll end the season on 24, which will be enough to land a second successive Golden Boot.
With three of the Premier League’s five worst defences left to face, backing anyone but the Argentine would be madness.