The visit of Hull represents the final game of the season that Aston Villa, gaily cartwheeling towards the foot of the Premier League as if blissfully unaware of the ramifications, can realistically expect to win.
With the Tigers enjoying a late-season on-the-road renaissance, though, those paramount three points are set to prove elusive once more.
A price of 29/20 says the Villans will garner the spoils that will probably ensure their top-tier safety and the draw weighs in at 21/10, but the best value lies in backing the visitors at 39/20.
The odds about victory for the Humberside club are mouth-watering enough, but there’s cause to shoot for an even greater profit, with a juicy 19/4 stating Steve Bruce’s side will prevail in a contest that contains fewer than 2.5 goals.
Sign on the dotted line at bwin.com today and trouser a £30 free bet, which translates into £142.50 if successfully wagered on a low-scoring Hull win at Villa Park.
Here’s how it’s going to come about:
If the league table were comprised on points gained at home only, Villa would currently be 18th.
Only Sunderland and Fulham have fared worse than Paul Lambert’s men on their own patch.
Their humdrum homestead form has been frequently discussed this term; they’ve failed to win six of their nine base camp outings in 2014, conceding at an average of two goals per game in their previous three.
Hull have the division’s strongest defence when facing sides residing in the lower echelons.
The Tigers’ ten goals conceded against lower half of the table teams is a total no other backline can best.
This stat is extremely detrimental to shot-shy Villa’s goalscoring prospects, which are worsened further by the fact that they’ve only found the net twice in the four games that followed Christian Benteke’s season-ending injury.
East Yorkshire’s finest have avoided defeat in three of their previous five road games.
These improved fortunes have largely been down to their strong rearguard, as in six of their previous eight league games they’ve only scored once if they’ve found the net at all.
With Villa out of sorts as well as goals and Hull’s attack hardly renowned for its gluttonous ways, one strike could well settle this and it’s worth backing the visitors to get it.