Wigan go into Saturday’s crucial fixture against Swansea as favourites to pick up all three points but their results at the DW Stadium so far this season make them hard to back, even at their price of 29/20.
The Latics have the second-worst home record in the league, with only Bolton picking up fewer than their nine points from 13 matches.
And while Swansea have only picked up nine points on their travels and are going through something of a sticky patch, Wigan’s one home league win in 13 attempts suggests the Swans can avoid defeat at the DW Stadium at the very least.
Five of their last eight games at the DW Stadium have ended without a winner, with Liverpool just one of the teams to go home with a single point when they would have expected all three.
Wigan’s major deficiency this campaign has been a lack of ruthlessness in front of goal.
Their game against Sunderland last month was a case in point – despite enjoying the overwhelming majority of possession and having twice as many shots on goal, the Latics lost to the Black Cats 4-1.
Indeed, only twice have Wigan scored more than once at home this season, with both of these instances coming against teams now in the bottom four (QPR and Blackburn).
While it is eight matches since Swansea kept a clean sheet, their defensive record (34 conceded in 26 games) is nowhere near as bad as that of Rovers, who have leaked 59 goals in 26 games, or QPR, who have let in 45 goals in the same number of matches.
The Latics are therefore safe bets to score under 1.5 goals, as odds of 1/2 suggest, and it is largely because of this that Swansea look capable of emerging from the DW Stadium with something to show for their efforts.
Nevertheless, with Swansea only winning one of their last six games and Wigan deceptively obdurate (in terms of defeats they are only 15th, rather than 19th, in the home league table), a draw could be the better bet at 21/10 than the Swansea win at 39/20 in bwin’s 3Way football betting market.
Another pointer towards the draw is Wigan’s recent resurgence, with an away win over Bolton sandwiched by draws against Everton and Aston Villa at home in their last three matches.
In fact, five of their last eight games at the DW Stadium have ended without a winner, with Liverpool just one of the teams to go home with a single point when they would have expected all three.
And given that Aston Villa (who drew at the DW Stadium last week, as predicted on news.bwin.com/en/) are the only side to have drawn more games than Swansea’s nine this season, another game without a winner suddenly looks to hold huge appeal.
At odds of 21/10, those who use the £25 free bet available for signing up for a new bwin account stand to win £77.50 if the punt proves successful.
One final bet to consider is for the game to contain under 2.5 goals.
Again, five of Wigan’s last eight games have featured under 2.5 goals, while the same can be said of seven of Swansea’s 13 away games – more than any other team barring Everton and Fulham.
However, with odds of 7/10 on under 2.5 goals, those looking for substantial returns should look no further than the draw.
Recommended bet: Wigan and Swansea to draw @ 21/10
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