Hot on the heels of our article on how West Brom can draw their way to Premier League safety comes the latest in a series providing statistical solace to Baggies fans who have lost their boing.
The Throstles are 11/4 to post what would be just their second win in 20 games when they travel to a Swansea side that drew with Crystal Palace in their previous Liberty Stadium outing.
It’s the kind of game they could do with getting something out of if they’re to justify odds of 21/50 about avoiding the drop.
Luckily it may not matter if they win, lose or draw if projected goal difference is anything to go by, with all five other members of the basement sextet far worse off.
If their average per-game scoring (1.1) and concession (17.8) ratios in the Premier League were to continue for the remaining 10 outings of their campaign they’d finish with a goal difference of -18.
While the worst goal difference recorded by a team who stayed up in the previous 18 20-team Premier League campaigns has been more parsimonious on four occasions, it’s nonetheless a respectable mark for a struggler.
Indeed West Brom’s projected goal aggregate is superior to the side with the worse GD to retain their status in each of the last nine leagues.
Next in the projected goal difference stakes come Sunderland (-24), followed by Crystal Palace (-26), Norwich (-29), Cardiff (-37) and Fulham (-47).
While goal difference seldom correlates exactly to final league standings the 5/2 about the Canaries to be relegated looks a handsome price given they must glean points from a run-in that includes Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal.
Meanwhile Fulham, seemingly nailed on for doom at 4/25, will be six scores adrift of Wigan’s record for the worst goal difference of any side to avoid relegation in the Premier League – 41.