Throwing the form book out of the window and putting faith in man motivator Ian Holloway to instigate a 7/4 Crystal Palace victory in their must-win clash with Fulham looks the perfect punting plan at Selhurst Park.
The Eagles, who have only won once this season, are just shading favouritism over their visitors, who are backable at 17/10 and a stalemate available at odds of 11/5.
Holloway’s effect in a must-win game should not be undervalued.
When the pressure cranks up on a team and a win is vital to their cause, there is no better man to have rallying the troops than the infectious Holloway, whose passion, determination and fiery nature has the knack of bringing the best out of players when it matters most.
Holloway may lack the tactical nous of a Jose Mourinho but one thing he specialises in is motivation.
Selhurst Park will be rocking under the floodlights and it’s in these types of pressurised environment that Holloway thrives in.
Take for instance his 100% record in Championship play-off finals.
He successfully lit a fire within both Blackpool and Palace camps to embrace the big occasion at Wembley and they subsequently ran out victorious.
Fulham have failed to find the net in nine of their last 16 Premier League away games.
Although Palace haven’t kept a clean sheet this season, Fulham’s inability to consistently fire away from Craven Cottage should act as a confidence booster to the home faithful.
Even in west London the Cottagers have yet to find their goal-scoring form, having only mustered five goals in all their Premier League games this season and only scoring two or more in a single match twice in the last 15 league matches.
Eight of Palace’s last 13 home wins have been by a margin of two or more goals.
When the south Londoners do find that winning feeling at Selhurst Park plenty of goals are usually on the menu.
In their only Premier League victory against Sunderland they smashed three past the woeful Mackems, highlighting the fact that when their attacking chemistry clicks they can be pretty ruthless.
With that in mind, backing the hosts to win 3-0 (25/1) and 3-1 (25/1) may prove to be a smart play.