Benfica know that a win against Manchester United at Old Trafford would guarantee them top spot in Champions League Group C, although history suggests that they are heading towards yet another defeat on English soil.
For starters, few teams beat United in their own back yard in either domestic or European competition.
In a run which goes back to 2005, the Red Devils have lost just once in their last 34 European matches at Old Trafford.
Meanwhile, in the Premier League, only Manchester City have enjoyed success at United’s ground in the last two seasons.
Portuguese teams have not had much luck at all at Old Trafford in recent years, with their record at the stadium reading played ten, drawn two and lost eight.
And with the Lisbon side losing nine of their 12 games against English opposition away from home, all signs point to a United victory.
This is reflected in bwin’s 3Way football betting market, with the 1968, 1999 and 2008 European Champions priced at 12/25 to pick up the win and move three points ahead of their opponents at the Group C summit.
This leaves a draw at 31/10 and an away success at 23/4.
However, there are better returns to be had than simply backing a home win.
For starters, punters could consider the odds of evens on there being under 2.5 goals in the game.
All four of Benfica’s games in the Champions League so far this season have featured fewer than three goals, while the same can be said for three of the four matches played by United.
With this in mind, a United win in a game with under 2.5 goals looks like a good option at odds of 6/5, with a successful £25 free bet on this outcome set to return £55.
The free bet is available to new customers who sign up for a bwin account.
Meanwhile, with United scoring three times in the final 15 minutes of games in this season’s Champions League and Benfica failing to do so in this period, the home side look more likely to score the final goal of the game at odds of 21/50.
And with Wayne Rooney netting the last goal of the game in United’s last two European ties, a bet on a repeat looks tempting at 7/2.
Finally, any goals from Benfica are likely to come from Rodrigo Moreno – the former Bolton loan signing has scored all four of the Portuguese side’s goals in their three games since a 1-0 win over Beira Ma on 22nd October.
Moreno is priced at 13/4 to score at any time.
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