Meetings between Manchester City and Manchester United have been confounding the odds since long before the Citizens went from poor relations to lottery louts.
Back in 2003/04, the Sky Blues were on their way to a 16th-place finish when they beat United 4-1 at the Etihad with goals from Robbie Fowler, Jon Macken, Trevor Sinclair and Shaun Wright-Phillips.
Meanwhile Nostradamus himself would have struggled to foresee City’s 6-1 Old Trafford – or that United would then beat them away just three months later even with Mystic Meg’s assistance.
As such the 3/1 about a United victory in the lair of the Premier League’s reigning rulers has to come onto the shock seeker’s radar.
Visiting sides have won three of the last four renewals as it is.
Though City are 17/20 favourites, they come into the fixture on the back of two defeats and a draw in their last three fixtures.
If there’s one thing the formbook expects of the first all Manchester clash of campaign it’s goals in abundance.
Manuel Pellegrini’s side have shipped twice for three games on the spin, while the Red Devils’ forward-heavy chalkboard has led to five of their last six games enriching over-2.5 goals backers.
Taking the counterintuitive character of the contest as our guide, backing under 1.5 total strikes in the match at 17/5 makes perfect sense.
Finally recent derbies have seen the big guns fire the decisive shots, with Yaya Toure and Sergio Aguero the Citizens’ most prolific contributors, while Wayne Rooney has assumed chief responsibility for carrying the fight among his colleagues.
It’s to the depths of the to score any time betting we go then in a bid to second-guess this most dumfounding of bragging-right brawls.
Defenders have pockmarked the scoresheet on occasion in recent years with Vincent Kompany, Pablo Zabaleta and even Joleon Lescott finding the net.
United’s Marcos Rojo is seemingly a similarly unlikely source of “pick the bones out of that”, but he struck five times in 28 outings for Sporting Lisbon last term.
At 15/2 to find the net at any time during proceedings you’ll make worse wagers this season.