When bwin.com went 5/1 about Sergio Aguero scoring the first goal in Manchester City’s match at Southampton, a price put up immediately after the Argentine notched the opener and two more against FC Bayern Munchen, we knew it wouldn’t last and said so here.
The odds compilers up at bwin towers have let the market do the work and Aguero is now available at 4/1 to break the deadlock at St Mary’s, but with some firms going as low as 3/1 there’s still value to be squeezed from the boys in black and gold’s offering.
Aguero converted an early penalty against FCB to make it seven openers in his past 15 City appearances, including three in his last seven away games.
This suggests, in a sense, that the 26-year-old is close to an even-money shot for this wager on form, as it has copped nearly 50 per cent of the time since mid-September.
Even factoring in the short time-frame, the biggest this bet should be is around the 11/4 mark.
As if to illustrate the discrepancy, Chelsea’s Diego Costa was 3/1 to score first at Sunderland, despite only doing so once in 13 club and country matches since August.
Add in all the other factors in the bet’s favour, such as Aguero scored Man City’s first goal in the past five matches he found the net, or the former Atletico Madrid hotshot breaking the deadlock directly after his last hat-trick six weeks ago, and it is clear this price hasn’t yet been nibbled at enough.
Open an account with bwin.com and get a £30 free bet, which can be used to back Aguero to bag the opener and will return £120 profit if he pulls it off.