Bolton could take a huge leap towards Premier League survival with victory over Fulham on Saturday and the resurgent Trotters look good bets to do so at odds of 8/5 in bwin’s 3Way football betting market.
Owen Coyle’s men appear to be peaking at just the right time, with three consecutive league wins helping them to ease clear of the relegation zone.
They will confident be of improving this record with the visit of Fulham to the Reebok Stadium as Martin Jol has been unable to uncover the root cause of the Cottagers’ aversion to playing away from home during his first season in charge.
Fulham have won just once away from home in the league since a 2-0 success over Wigan on October 29th, and that was to a QPR side in the middle of a run of five defeats and two draws in seven games.
This form tallies with previous years, with Fulham having mustered just 14 wins away from home in their last seven seasons in the Premier League.
Typically, their main problem this time around has been scoring goals on their travels, with just eight managed this season – the joint-fewest number of away goals in the league – and blanks drawn in three of their last four away trips.
Fulham are more than twice as likely to concede after the break than in the opening period on their travels, with 13 goals conceded in the second half compared with just six in the first.
Crucially, Bolton’s recent form suggests they are well-placed to take advantage of Fulham’s lack of threat going forward, with their last four league games seeing them score eight times in total, and their last two home games seeing them score twice in each.
Meanwhile, Blackburn, QPR, Arsenal, Swansea and Liverpool have all been restricted to no more than a single goal on their trips to the Reebok this year, with Wigan the only away team to score more than once at Bolton’s home ground in 2012.
With this in mind, it seems a safe bet that Fulham will manage no more than one goal on Saturday (a 1/2 chance).
Meanwhile, victory (33/20) and even a draw (9/4) would appear out of reach for the Lilywhites as long as Bolton remain, as they have in recent home games, tight at the back and continue to carry a threat going forward.
But rather than bet on a Bolton win at full time, backing the Trotters to win the second half could be the best option.
This is because Fulham are more than twice as likely to concede after the break than in the opening period on their travels, with 13 goals conceded in the second half compared with just six in the first.
Worryingly for Jol, when allied with their lack of goals, this defensive vulnerability means Fulham have the worst second half away record in the league.
With Bolton scoring six of their last nine goals in the second half, odds of 37/20 on the Trotters outscoring their opponents after the interval therefore look extremely good value.
A successful £25 free bet on Bolton to win the second half is set to return £71.25, with the free bet available to new customers who sign up for a bwin account.
Recommended bet: Bolton to win the second half @ 37/20
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