Season So Far
Swansea’s games so far this season have not followed an obvious pattern, with an impressive home record in the Europa League qualifiers spoiled by the 4-1 loss to Manchester United at the Liberty Stadium.
They failed to win any of their away qualifiers, although 4-0 and 5-1 first leg victories ensured the ties were already over and have won one and lost one on the road domestically.
Michael Laudrup has shown the skills of an adept poker player with his hold-em and fold-em approach to football matches.
The Dane sensed victory last time out at West Brom and played his best hand, with new £12m striker Wilfried Bony making his first start in the Premier League alongside last season’s 18-goal man Michu in the 2-0 win.
Former Getafe boss Laudrup made seven changes to his team the last time he faced next opponents Liverpool ahead of their Capital One Cup final win over Bradford in February and lost 5-0 at Anfield.
With potential for success at out-of-form La Liga side Valencia and promoted Crystal Palace in the fixtures following the Reds’ visit, the 11/10 about the league leaders taking all three points appeals.
Europa League exertions and the opening day defeat to Man Utd aside, Swansea have conceded just one goal, a Roberto Soldado penalty, in their recent league fixtures.
Daniel Sturridge, Liverpool’s sole Premier League goal-grabber this season, is not certain to face Laudrup’s team after missing England’s World Cup qualifiers.
All the evidence therefore points to a low scoring game and 4/5 on under 2.5 goals looks the way to bet.
Bony is Swansea’s top scorer in all competitions with four, despite only making that many starts to Michu’s seven, but the Spanish midfielder-cum-striker has been omitted from the starting line-up just once in the league since the aforementioned thumping at Liverpool and still looks the Welsh side’s most potent attacking threat.
He is 2/1 to find the back of the net against Brendan Rodgers’ team.
Other Notable Trends
A third of Michu’s 18 league strikes last season were the first goals in the respective matches and he can be backed at 11/2 to break the deadlock again. Of the four Premier League games these sides have contested since Swansea’s 2010/11 promotion, three have seen less than two goals scored.