Norwich City hover precariously above the bottom three and have won only one of their last nine Premier League matches, but they should take a huge leap towards safety by beating West Bromwich Albion.
While it may seem strange to tip a side in the middle of such a disastrous run to go and produce a match-winning performance, under the circumstances I can only see one winner at Carrow Road on Sunday afternoon.
After seeing Wigan Athletic lose a must-win match against Swansea City on Tuesday night, the Canaries know that victory over the Baggies will all but secure their top-flight status for another season.
Okay, I admit that I may be being presumptuous here by second guessing the results over the next few weeks, but here is how I see it panning out.
Wigan currently occupy the final relegation spot and remain on 35 points with Arsenal and Aston Villa to play.
The Gunners will see off Wigan with ease at the Emirates on Tuesday evening, especially with the Latics players likely to be leggy after a draining FA Cup final outing against Manchester City at Wembley.
So, even with a win over Aston Villa on the last day of the season, Roberto Martinez’s men will end the season with 38 points.
Now, for Norwich, they know they travel to the deposed champions on the final day of the season and needing a result at the Etihad Stadium is not something that Chris Hughton or anyone associated with the Norfolk club will want to entertain right now.
Victory against West Brom will take the Canaries to 41 points and will mean that only two Wigan victories against Arsenal and Villa – a very unlikely scenario – will allow them to catch Norwich.
That said, going on recent form, it is certainly not going to be an easy win for Hughton’s side and the Baggies will not just roll over without a fight.
But with so much at stake and the Carrow Road crowd in full voice, I can see the home side taking maximum points.
Although it will not be a stroll in the park for Norwich, it is hard for the visiting players of West Brom not to already be thinking about their summer holidays.
A tremendous first season under the stewardship of Steve Clarke has seen the Baggies occupy the top half of the Premier League table for the whole campaign, but as the season draws to a close and with little to play for, odds of 23/10 for an away win do not appeal.
A narrow 1-0 defeat against Manchester City on Tuesday night followed a 3-2 loss to Wigan, and a hat-trick of reverses is priced up at 5/4, with the draw at 11/5.
Last weekend’s 2-1 defeat at home to relegation rivals Aston Villa last weekend was a terrible result for Norwich, but there was one positive to come from the fixture.
Captain and talisman Grant Holt finally rediscovered his shooting boots and got his name on the scoresheet (albeit from the penalty spot) for the first time since February 23rd, when he notched a 90th-minute winner against Everton.
The big man was a huge part of Norwich’s success last season and if he can come up with just a glimpse of that form on Sunday and bag a couple of goals, it should be enough to see his side safe from the dreaded drop.
Norwich’s number nine is 6/1 to score the first goal of the game and an extremely tempting 2/1 to score at any time in 90 minutes.
A final tip to consider is a correct scoreline of 2-1 to the Canaries. Their previous two victories, both at Carrow Road, have ended 2-1 (against Reading and Everton), and a repeat of this outcome looks a great bet at odds of 29/4.
However, I like the look of the 2/1 shout on Holt firing Norwich to a priceless victory and that’s where my money will be going.