At first glance, the statistics appear to suggest that Bolton Wanderers are a good bet to see off Birmingham whey they lock horns at St Andrew’s on Saturday.
After all, the Blues have been struggling since their Carling Cup victory and now find themselves mired in the Premier League relegation battle.
Strong home form was the cornerstone of their successful return to the top flight last term, when they finished in a hugely respectable ninth place.
But they have won just four of their 15 matches on their own patch this season, which is the fewest in the division, along with Blackpool, Newcastle and Wigan.
Add in the fact that Owen Coyle’s men are yet to lose to a team in the bottom half of the table and suddenly the 37/20 available on Bolton seems tempting.
The Trotters also won the corresponding fixture 2-1 last year, so punters may be interested to note that a successful £10 stake on a repeat scoreline at 19/2 would return £105.
However, as any Premier League betting enthusiast will testify, the self-proclaimed greatest league in the world is rarely predictable.
Birmingham will be able to call on fit-again top scorer Nikola Zigic, who is priced at 11/2 to grab the first goal of the match.
Furthermore, Bolton have been struggling on the road in recent weeks, having finished empty-handed in seven of their last eight away league fixtures.
And with the Blues showing a decent habit of pulling out victories when they most need them under Alex McLeish, perhaps the 7/5 betting odds on Birmingham triumphing could be worth a punt.
Failing that, it seems inconceivable that either side will romp to victory, so perhaps the 13/10 offered by bwin on any team winning by exactly one goal difference could be the most sensible play.
A successful £10 bet on both teams to score at 39/50 would return £17.80. New customers can register here to claim a free £25 bet.