With six of Fulham’s seven away games this season featuring fewer than 2.5 goals, a bet on a repeat looks the obvious way to go when the Lilywhites meet Swansea at the Liberty Stadium on Saturday.
For while the Swans hit a purple patch of form on their own turf in September and October with 3-0, 2-0 and 3-1 wins over West Brom, Stoke and Bolton respectively, four of their seven games at the Liberty Stadium have also contained under 2.5 goals.
Last time out, Aston Villa held Brendan Rodgers’ men to a 0-0 draw, while the visit of Manchester United ended in a narrow 1-0 win for the away side.
With a 1-1 draw against Arsenal at the Emirates two weeks ago, Fulham demonstrated their ability to keep teams quiet in their own back yards even when the opposition is comfortable in possession.
As such, Saturday’s game looks likely to be another low-scoring affair.
Unfortunately, this is reflected in the odds, with bwin quoting a price of 13/20 on there being under 2/5 goals in the match.
Bigger returns are therefore available in bwin’s 3Way football betting market, where a Swansea win is priced at 3/2, a draw is available at 11/5 and a Fulham success is quoted at 9/5.
However, a better option could be to build on the likelihood of a low-scoring game and bet on a Swansea or Fulham win with under 2.5 combined goals or a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.
A home win in a game with fewer than three goals is priced at 4/1, while an away success in similar circumstances is at 9/2.
Meanwhile, odds of 25/4 and 19/4 are available for 0-0 and 1-1 draws respectively.
Of those bets, the odds of 4/1 on a Swansea win with under 2.5 goals looks the most appealing, with a successful punt on this outcome set to return £125.
Danny Murphy’s absence could swing the game decisively in Swansea’s favour, with the former Liverpool player having proved himself a key man for Martin Jol’s side in recent seasons.
It is no different in this campaign, with Murphy once again showcasing his ability to set the tempo and weighing in with a goal and five assists.
The 34-year-old’s unavailability through injury will therefore go some way towards blunting Fulham’s attack, making the Swans more likely to steal all three points.
Furthermore, with the Welsh side’s defeat to Manchester United understandable and the game against Villa played out in trying circumstances given the sudden death of Gary Speed, it is not too hard to imagine Swansea returning to winning ways.
Just don’t expect too many goals.
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