The League Two play-off final pits two teams that have never before played in the third tier of English football and it is Fleetwood Town that should be backed to make history by beating Burton Albion at Wembley.
The Cod Army are the clear 11/10 favourites to win the match, which is the call ahead of the draw at 11/5 or Albion at the same price.
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Fleetwood finished four points ahead of Burton in League Two and can confirm their superiority by clinching promotion to League One.
Burton have won just four of their last 13 matches.
It is difficult for out-of form teams to succeed in the play-offs, which does not bode well for injury-hit Burton Albion, who must be concerned about their recent results.
Gary Rowett’s side have limped over the line in the regular 46 game season, winning just four of their last 13 games and only one of the last five.
Fleetwood head to Wembley in fine fettle having lost just once in their last ten fixtures, keeping five clean sheets in that sequence.
Fleetwood scored 19 more goals than Burton in League Two.
As the cliché goes, goals win games and out of the two sides taking to the field at Wembley it is Fleetwood that boast the firepower.
Over the course of the 46 game regular season, only the automatically promoted trio of Chesterfield, Scunthorpe and Rochdale scored more goals Fleetwood’s total of 66, with the Cod Army hitting two or more goals on 20 occasions.
By contrast, Burton found the net just 47 times, 19 goals fewer than their promotion rivals. Only the bottom four teams managed to score less.
Graham Alexander’s team posted the fourth best record against the top half.
Fleetwood will take comfort from their matches against the better teams in League Two this season, which have generally gone well.
Only the teams in the top three had a better record against the teams in the top half than Town, whose 32 goals in those matches was bettered only by Scunthorpe.