After another troubling set of Home Heroes results on Tuesday, I am plumping for Crewe Alexandra, Southend United and MK Dons to enjoy home wins against Hartlepool United, Portsmouth and Barnet respectively this weekend.
In midweek I suffered yet more disappointment, with Swindon’s shock home defeat and Port Vale’s draw denying what should have been a cast-iron treble of wins.
But after turning my back on Paolo Di Canio and Micky Adams like Michael Corleone did to his treacherous brother Fredo in the Godfather Part II, I am ready to get down to business.
And by business, I am of course referring to the practice of predicting home wins in League One and League Two, rather than the organisation of a nationwide crime syndicate.
However, with odds of just over 7/2 available on wins for Crewe, Southend and MK Dons, this could be an offer you can’t refuse, particularly if you are registering with bwin, as the free £20 bet offered to new punters could translate to returns of £94.50.
Now, on to the action!
Crewe to beat Hartlepool @ 11/10
Crewe Alexandra may not be in the best of form, but in Hartlepool they face an opponent putting in even worse displays in League One this season.
The Railwaymen will have fond recent memories of facing the Pool too, having crushed them 5-0 at the Alexandra Stadium in the Capital One Cup earlier this season.
Crewe have also proven difficult to beat at home, losing just one of the last four games on their own patch in League One.
By contrast, Hartlepool are in free-fall and have failed to win any of their last five away games, conceding 16 goals in the process, so a home win looks on the cards at 11/10.
Southend to beat Barnet @ 1/2
There are hardly any teams I wouldn’t back for a win against Barnet right now. The Bees are among the worst sides in England at the moment, having failed to secure a single win so far this season.
As you can probably guess, their away form has been far from impressive, with Mark Robson’s side losing each of their last five games on the road in the league and scoring just one goal in the process.
Southend are in good form at Roots Hall, having won four of their last five games there, scoring eight goals in that quartet of triumphs.
History is also on the side of the Shrimpers, as they have won each of the last five meetings between the sides, including 3-0 victories home and away last season.
It’s fair to say that run looks likely to continue at 1/2.
MK Dons to beat Portsmouth @ 1/2
I know that I was left with egg on my face after predicting a Portsmouth defeat at the hands of Scunthorpe last time out, but I still believe the wheels will fall off for troubled Pompey.
After all, when your main goal threat is Luke Rodgers, a man who struggled for consistency in the MLS, then you have every reason to be concerned.
MK Dons should offer a tougher test than Scunny too, with Karl Robinson’s side proving hard to beat at stadium:mk so far this season, with four wins and a draw from their five home games thus far.
A solid defence has been the key, with the Dons keep clean sheets in four of these five outings. And despite some encouraging recent results, Portsmouth remain largely unpredictable, with 13 goals conceded over their last six games.
For those reasons, I am backing MK Dons to put them away with a home win at 1/2.
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