The Punter is getting pretty excited about the start of the Football League season this weekend and has been working round the clock to provide some insight on the type of football betting markets where money could be made!
One of the smartest things any bettor can do is use statistics to inform their wagers and from the data I’ve been looking at, I reckon we could be on to a winner in League One this season with Sheffield Wednesday.
While the Owls were once again unable to get promotion back to the Championship (just what exactly has happened to this great club?), they had one very telling tendency last term: scoring early goals.
The men from Hillsborough scored 14 goals in the first 15 minutes of their matches, which was more than any other team. In fact, of this season’s League One line-up, only Bury matched that record in 2010-11, and don’t forget the Shakers enjoyed a free-scoring promotion from the division below.
Wednesday also notched 14 times between minutes 16 and 30, meaning they found the back of the net an impressive 28 times in the first half an hour – three clear of their nearest rivals.
But what really grabbed the Punter’s attention is that the Owls scored just 67 times in total over the regular season. In other words, an amazing 41.7% of their goals came in the opening 30 minutes, compared to the divisional average of just 29%.
So what does this mean for football betting fans?
Well, it means that it must surely be worth having a flutter on Wednesday in a number of markets bwin will be offering on their matches this season. In particular, I’ll be looking to bet on them to score more in the first half than they do in the second half.
And when you consider that they also conceded ten goals in the first 15 minutes of their matches last year and 16 in the following 15, it seems like betting on the net to bulge with impressive regularity (at either end) in the first half of their fixtures is something of a no-brainer.
For example, there were 70 goals before the interval in games involving Wednesday last term, at an average of 1.52 – so betting on bwin’s over 1.5 goals in the first half offering will be firmly on my radar.
Other League One teams with a happy knack of scoring in the opening quarter of an hour were Leyton Orient (13 goals from a total of 71 – a ratio of 18.3%) and Yeovil (ten goals from a total of 56 – a ratio of 17.9%).
In terms of finding the net in the first half an hour, also keep an eye on the Owls’ nearest challengers in this department, Oldham and Exeter, who scored 32.1% and 31.8% of their total goals respectively during this period of their fixtures in 2010-11.
Another way of looking at who to back in the first goalscorer market, in particular, is to see which teams had a problem with leaking goals in the opening stages of their matches.
Interestingly, Orient were the worst offenders in the first 15 minutes (ten of 62 goals conceded in this period), which perhaps lessens their appeal for opening goal bets a little, but certainly adds to the value of following them in the first-half over 1.5 goals market.
Next on the list are Tranmere, who let in 13 of their 61 goals (21.3%) over the season in the first quarter of an hour.
But perhaps the other team to keep a close eye on for first goalscorer betting will be Yeovil, whose deadlock-breaking abilities are complemented by the fact that they conceded just twice in the opening quarter of an hour of their matches last term.
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