This week’s Bet of the Day focuses on a clash between a side who cannot defend at home and a team that cannot win on the road.
Rayo Vallecano’s atmospheric stadium, as discussed previously here, is home to a special kind of supporter; a place where chants of “jump up and down if you’re not a fascist” and the unfurling of political banners during matches are commonplace.
That the fans remain so vociferous in their backing of their team can only be down to the unique identity of the club, because quite frankly, some of the defending at the Estadio Vallecas has this season been comical.
Rayo have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their previous seven matches, with their last shut-out coming in the 0-0 draw with Sevilla at the start of September – a match in which the side from Andalusia contrived to miss not one but two penalty kicks.
In those aforementioned last seven matches, Rayo have conceded 22 goals and while they have achieved some decent results (most notably last weekend’s win at Malaga) it has not been because of their defensive solidity.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have proved a frustrating outfit – solid at home, but unable to pick up any points on the road, having lost all five of their away matches this season.
Yet that record does not quite do them justice. Two weeks ago they put in a disciplined performance at the Bernabeu to limit Real Madrid to a 2-0 win, while last weekend they were briefly on level terms with Barcelona before ultimately losing 3-1.
In Iago Aspas, Celta have a forward with great vision and technical ability, while the figure of on-loan Arsenal striker Park Chu-Young gives them a more direct option should they require it (stop sniggering at the back).
Having scored in every one of their last nine matches (apart from the trip to the Bernabeu), Celta will be confident of netting once more against a Rayo defence which can be generously described as leaky.
For these reasons, over 2.5 goals in this encounter looks a nailed on selection at the price of 3/4. This bet has paid out in four of Celta’s five away games this season, while it has proved the correct selection in every one of the last five matches that Rayo have played.
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