Just ten days after they beat Leeds 7-3 at Elland Road, tipping Nottingham Forest to play out a game with under 2.5 goals could be construed as something of a risk.
But as Steve Cotterill’s men are up against under 2.5 goals specialists Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park, the bet has a far greater chance of coming off, while the fact Forest’s results have quickly reverted to normalcy also helps to rule out another freak goal-ridden thriller.
Only four of Crystal Palace’s home games in the league have seen over 2.5 goals this season, which is the joint-fewest in the division.
Overall, just one in three of Palace’s league games have featured three or more goals, with only one of their last eight games containing more than two successful strikes.
Meanwhile, Forest’s two games since their 7-3 success over Leeds have ended in a 1-1 draw against Brighton and a 0-0 draw against Leicester.
Palace have been held by Coventry, Burnley and Doncaster since the beginning of March, all of whom are in the bottom half of the table.
All things considered, then, odds of 3/5 on under 2.5 goals make far more sense than the odds of 5/4 on offer for over 2.5 goals.
But with a successful £25 free bet on this outcome set to return just £40, punters may choose to look elsewhere to increase their potential winnings.
One avenue to explore would be to bet on a draw.
Home side Crystal Palace are 7/5 favourites in bwin’s 3Way football betting market, as could be expected of a team who still have an outside chance of making the play-offs.
Meanwhile, Forest, who are 14 points worse off than their opponents tomorrow, are more preoccupied with avoiding relegation and are at 2/1 to claim all three points.
However, the draw at 2/1 could still come into play given the form of both sides.
Palace have drawn more home games than any other team in the Championship, with ten of their 19 games at Selhurdt Park finishing this way, while five of their last eight league games have ended without a winner.
Included in this sequence is an impressive 0-0 draw against West Ham at Upton Park, and it would be easy to conclude that Palace should see off lower-ranked opposition at home if they are able to compete with the league’s big-hitters on their travels.
But Palace have also been held by Coventry, Burnley and Doncaster since the beginning of March, all of whom are in the bottom half of the table.
With Forest drawing their last two games, Eagles fans look set to be treated to an 11th draw in 20 games at Selhurst Park.
And given the likelihood of a game with under 2.5 goals, it could be a low-scoring draw at that, meaning punts on a 0-0 (6/1) or 1-1 (19/4) final scoreline could well be worth consideration.
Recommended bet: Crystal Palace to draw with Nottingham Forest @ 2/1
Outside punt: 0-0 or 1-1 final scorelines @ 6/1 and 19/4 respectively
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