Southampton’s 3-1 defeat to Reading at St Mary’s on Friday might have lost them their position at the top of the Championship table but they remain the league’s form team away from home.
The Saints have won five of their last six league games on their travels so will go into their match against Peterborough at London Road confident they can pick up all three points.
With just three games to go, victory for the Saints would move them tantalisingly close to automatic promotion, even if their loss to the Royals has severely dented their hopes of winning the title.
Nigel Adkins’ team sit three points off top spot but have a three-point cushion over third-placed West Ham.
Peterborough, meanwhile, are in 18th position and destined for a mid-table finish.
If Southampton win as expected, it seems a safe bet that they will do so with under 3.5 goals.
Although it is mathematically still possible for them to go down, it would take an unlikely sequnce of events, including third-bottom Coventry comprehensively winning their three remaining games and hoping Posh get no more than a point.
On its own, the fact the Sky Blues have not won more than two games in a row all season and are without a victory in their last three suggests Darren Ferguson’s side are safe.
So with very little to play for, Peterborough look to be the ideal opponents for Southampton to face at this stage of the season and the Saints have duly been made odds-on favourites to win the game in bwin’s 3Way football betting market.
Posh are priced at 15/4 to record an upset, leaving the draw at 29/10 and an away success at 31/50.
It is not only end-of-season syndrome which makes Peterborough underdogs.
Ferguson’s troops have lost seven of their last 11 games and have failed to score in five of those defeats.
Importantly, Posh are dropping points at home and away so could struggle to match a Saints side who have won four of their last six games on their travels to nil.
With this in mind, a Southampton win to nil could be a good starting point for punters looking to bet on this match but seeking longer odds than those of 31/50 on a Saints win.
At 2/1, a successful £25 free bet on a Southampton win to nil is set to return £75, with the free bet available to new customers who sign up for a bwin account.
However, a Southampton win with under 3.5 goals could be an even better option.
Although it is at slightly shorter odds than a win to nil (17/10, which means a successful £25 free bet would return £67.50) it has a much better chance of coming off given the danger of a Peterborough consolation goal.
Only one of the last 15 Southampton away games have featured more than three goals, while nine of Peterborough’s 11 home defeats this campaign have seen under 3.5 goals.
So if Southampton win as expected, it seems a safe bet that they will do so with under 3.5 goals.
Recommended bet: Southampton to win with under 3.5 goals
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