Saturday’s game at Hillsborough sees promotion hopefuls Leicester City travel to a Sheffield Wednesday side just one place and two points above the Championship relegation zone.
Dave Jones’ men head into the match on the back of three straight defeats and another could see them drop back into the bottom three should other results go against them.
The latest of those losses came at the hands of Nottingham Forest, who ran out 1-0 winners thanks to an own goal from Spanish defender Miguel Llera.
The match was the sixth in which Wednesday have failed to score – a record that can’t be beaten by any team in the division so far this campaign.
A closer look at the statistics reveals that the Owls also have the league’s worst record when facing teams in the top half, so it is no surprise they are 5/2 outsiders for the victory. Leicester are favourites at 21/20, while the draw is available at 9/4.
The Foxes put an end to their four-match winless streak by thumping Ipswich Town last time out, a result that kept them in fifth place, six points behind leaders Crystal Palace.
Nigel Pearson’s men are now priced at 7/4 to win promotion back to the Premier League after a nine-year absence and 5/1 to claim their seventh second-tier title.
Top scorer Dave Nugent took his season’s tally to nine with the opening two goals in Saturday’s rout of the Tractor Boys and the one-time England international is set to lead the line once more.
No team in the Championship has kept as many clean sheets as Leicester, so you may be tempted to back them to win the match without conceding at odds of 13/5, especially considering their opponents’ lacklustre recent attempts in front of goal.
New customers who use their free £20 bet they receive when registering would see a return of £72 if they correctly back Leicester to win and shut out Sheffield Wednesday’s attack.
However, my main pick is backing the visitors to win the second half of the game, as they have done in 12 of their 17 league matches, at a price of 27/20.
Incidentally, only the three teams below them in the division and Leeds United have a worse second-half record than Wednesday, so this bet looks to offer plenty of value.