Burton 1-0 Derby
Newcastle 2-0 Brighton (Jamaal Lascelles, Jonjo Shelvey)
Kick Off: 17.30, 10/09/2016
Head-to-head: Derby 3-0 Newcastle, Newcastle 0-0 Derby, Newcastle 2-2 Derby, Derby 1-0 Newcastle, Derby 2-3 Newcastle
* Newcastle to win @ 17/10
* Under 2.5 total goals @ 8/13
* Over 1.5 second-half goals @ 21/10
* Newcastle have won six and lost just two of their past 12 matches
* None of these sides’ last six matches combined saw more than two goals scored
* At least two second-half strikes were registered in three of the past four times this fixture saw goals
A look at Derby’s betting odds
Having won just two of seven matches under new boss Nigel Pearson, failing to do so in front of the home fans twice in the past month, Derby are shaky 8/5 favourites in the betting to see off a Newcastle side clearly coming into form.
The fact that the Magpies haven’t beaten the Rams in their past four encounters shouldn’t really matter, as their last clash came all the way back in 2010, but there may be some betting lessons from history to learn.
Nine second-half goals have come over the past five runnings of this fixture, with at least a brace notched after the break in three of those, two of which were played at this stadium.
Over 1.5 second-half goals is available at just over 2/1 odds here and looks a bit big.
A look at Newcastle’s betting odds
The last three of Newcastle’s four wins on the bounce came in matches of under 2.5 goals, while all seven of Derby’s 2016/17 outings have obliged with as few strikes, so 8/13 odds about the same again seems generous.
Rafa Benitez’s visitors are just behind their hosts in the betting at 17/10, which gives an indication of the two sides’ current standings in the eyes of the odds compilers.
It’s tough to see beyond a win for the marginal outsiders on their travels.