Regular football betting fans know the drill: there’s five minutes to go and the team you backed are clinging to a one-goal lead. Then, out of nowhere, the other side score a late equaliser and your bet is dead in the water.
There are some teams who seem to always be capable of pulling results out of the fire in this fashion. But with bwin offering a range of second-half-focused odds on almost every fixture in the domestic football calendar, wouldn’t it be good to cash in on the exploits of these sides?
Well, the Punter has been taking a good look at the relevant statistics and has identified a handful of teams to watch in the Championship this season who have a knack of grabbing goals at the death.
The results could also give bwin customers a headstart when betting on a number of other related markets, such as how many goals will be scored in the second half.
Interestingly, 22% of all goals scored in the regular 2010-11 Championship season arrived in the final 15 minutes of matches – higher than any other 15-minute period – and a whopping 40% came in the last half an hour.
This suggests that football betting fans looking at any team goalscoring markets for a particular fixture should have a close eye on how regularly each side finds the back of the net in the latter periods of their matches.
First up, let’s take a look at who was best at notching in the last 15 minutes in England’s second tier in 2010-11.
Promoted Norwich aside, Cardiff and Reading scored the most in this period (21), representing 27.6% and 25.6% of their total goals respectively.
However, Nottingham Forest eclipsed them by scoring 20 of their 70 goals (or 28.6% of them) between the 76th and 90th minutes – the best percentage of any team remaining in the division this season.
It is also surprising to note that an impressive 28.3% of Portsmouth’s goals came in this period. In fact, amazingly, Steve Cotterill’s men scored almost 53% of their goals in the final half an hour of their matches, which was comfortably better than nearest challengers Hull (48.1%).
The inclusion of Pompey is curious in the sense that the top teams in any division tend to be the best at grabbing late goals, but the Fratton Park outfit were only able to finish in mid-table.
With this point in mind, the Punter is expecting Birmingham, West Ham and Blackpool to fare well in the late goals department following their relegation from the Premier League, as they all have a decent chance of pushing for promotion.
The Blues merit particular attention, having scored 27% of their top-flight goals last term in the final 15 minutes, despite a woeful league season as a whole.
Similarly, Peterborough, who scored a huge 32 of their 113 goals (or 28.3%) in this period on their way to League One promotion, are one to watch in the opening weeks of the new campaign.
Another way of looking at second-half markets is to see which teams tend to concede late goals and then back their opponents on any given weekend!
On this front, Barnsley seemingly have the worst habit, having conceded 21 of their 66 goals (31.8%) in the last 15 minutes, while also returning a relatively poor effort at the other end in this period (only eight of 66 scored).
It hasn’t escaped the Punter’s notice that Barnsley actually travel to the City Ground to face Forest in their opener tomorrow – for the record, the hosts are priced at evens to win the second half.
Millwall were also prone to a late collapse last term (15 of 48 conceded in the last 15), as were Ipswich (20 of 68) and Blackpool (23 of 78), although the latter can be expected to improve that statistic this term in less daunting company.
Interestingly, Forest and Pompey conceded just 11.7% and 13.2% of their goals respectively in the final 15 minutes, which compares favourably to the divisional average of 22% and further reinforces their credentials as masters of the scoring in the latter stages.
It is also worth noting that Birmingham only let in seven of their 58 Premier League goals during this period (12.1%), meaning they could be an equally viable proposition for a range of second-half markets in the upcoming campaign.
So, in summary:
Teams to bet on in second-half markets: Nottingham Forest, Portsmouth, Cardiff, Reading, Birmingham
Teams to watch as potential second-half market targets: Blackpool, West Ham, Peterborough, Hull
Teams to bet against in second-half markets: Barnsley, Millwall, Ipswich
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