Before this weekend’s own goal-inspired collapse at Anfield, only once in 2012 had Brighton conceded more than one goal.
So their 6-1 FA Cup hammering by Liverpool should be treated as an aberration by punters, who can confidently expect Albion’s usual defensive solidity to return against low-scoring Hull on Wednesday evening.
As the home side have played the most Championship games with under 2.5 goals, if Albion can avoid another implosion, it’s likely to be a low-scoring game.
It’s worth betting on Hull playing out their 24th game this season with less than three goals at football betting odds of 11/20 and with the reverse fixture earlier this season finishing 0-0, under 1.5 goals at 33/20 is even worth considering.
Both sides have saved what rare goals they do get for the second half, with over 65% of their combined strikes coming after the break, making more goals to be scored after the interval than before it good value at 5/4 with bwin.
With a tight game likely, one moment of quality (or three own goals!) could prove the difference, and Brighton have made a habit of creating that moment this year.
Good starts have been Gus Poyet’s side’s forte – they have opened the scoring in seven straight games at the start of 2012 – and they are 39/20 to score first once again at Hull.
However, Hull have shown great resilience under Nick Barmby, seven times coming from behind to earn at least a point, so lead-draw at 15/4 in the run of play market also looks good value.
New customers using the free £25 bet they receive when registering with bwin would win £118.75 if either side comes from behind to draw.
Speculation around Poyet’s position and the Liverpool loss may have knocked Albion’s confidence, so they would probably be happy with a draw at their fellow play-off chasers.
That might be the best bet at 11/5 in bwin’s 3Way football betting odds, while a home win is priced up at 83/100 and a Brighton victory is available at 7/2.
If you do fancy the Seagulls to get the job done, the offer of 13/2 on them to win a game featuring less than three goals is one not to be missed.
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