Birmingham welcome free-scoring Peterborough to St Andrews on Saturday hoping to put their recent 1-0 defeat to Reading behind them.
It would appear that we’re in for a thrilling game, seeing as they are up against a side which, true to form, is still intent on giving its own fans just as many heart palpitations as it might inflict on the opposition’s.
The Posh have so far managed to net an incredible 32 times (only Southampton have scored more), yet have conceded a staggering 29 (nope, nobody’s beaten that record), which is one of the reasons why bwin are offering odds of 6/5 for four goals or more, while more adventurous punters might even gamble on five or more, quoted at 11/4.
That said, these odds might be too good to be true. Though Peterborough have managed to score on their last four away trips – including two in a thrilling defeat by Watford at Vicarage Road – they are now up against a very solid Birmingham back line.
The Blues’ defence has been fantastic at home this season, with only one goal conceded in six league games. It might therefore be worth taking a look at the odds on the home side winning to nil (11/4), or those which see the game having less than 3.5 goals, priced at 3/5.
Games at St Andrews have generally been devoid of your typical Championship frenzy and the Blues have only managed to score three times or more once, against Milwall.
Throw in the fact that the Birmingham squad could be worn out by their exertions in the Europa League and the international break and we might just see a draw (priced at 12/5) or, more likely, a 1-0 home win, quoted at 19/2.
Interesting as Peterborough’s away wins against Portsmouth and Bristol City might be, their odds of winning this game (33/10 in bwin’s 3Way football betting market), aren’t as generous as they seem.
Darren Ferguson’s side have beaten lower-table opposition, but have always lost against sides fighting for promotion, namely Southampton, West Ham and Blackpool.
The scenario is likely to repeat itself against a Birmingham side which, despite lying below Posh in 13th place, is on the mend, with four wins in its last six encounters.
The Blues’ love of second-half goals might make a difference too. Of their last 15 goals in all competitions, 12 have come in that period, so a half-time draw with an eventual Birmingham win (17/4) seems more than likely, as does the 13/10 on the Blues netting more in the second half.
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