Saturday’s game at the Amex Stadium sees Brighton and Hove Albion host a Birmingham City side searching for the point that would all but guarantee their place in the top six.
The Seagulls are without a win in six, and their point against Watford last time out was not enough to keep them in contention for a play-off position.
However, only the league’s top two sides and Birmingham City themselves have lost fewer times in front of their own fans than Brighton.
That said, the two goals scored in their 2-2 draw against the Hornets on Tuesday evening were their first in four games, and only Nottingham Forest have scored fewer in April.
Only Southampton and West Ham United have hit the net more times than Birmingham all season, and no team has failed to score on fewer occasions.
So despite their impressive home form over the course of the season, Brighton go into this game as outsiders at 21/10 in bwin’s 3Way football betting market. The draw is at 23/10, while Birmingham are at 6/5 for the win.
Only Southampton and West Ham United have hit the net more times than Birmingham all season, and no team has failed to score on fewer occasions. Their last blank came against Hull City sixteen games ago.
Brighton are however one of the other five teams to have denied Birmingham a goal this term. The reverse fixture at St Andrew’s back in October finished 0-0.
It is worth noting that Birmingham’s position in the play-offs will also be confirmed in Middlesbrough fail to beat second-place Southampton.
However, they will surely be keen to not have to rely on the fortunes of anyone else, and will be going all out for victory.
With this in mind, you might be tempted to back the away side to win with over 2.5 combined goals in the game at 12/5. Punters who use their free £25 bet will see a return of £85 if Birmingham win in that manner.
Recommended bet: Birmingham to win with over 2.5 goals @ 12/5
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